Gwynne Dyer | Qatar showdown?
The deadline that Saudi Arabia and its allies set for Qatar to submit to their "non-negotiable" demands has just been postponed from Monday to Wednesday. Since Qatar has already made it plain that it will not comply - it says the demands are "reminiscent of the extreme and punitive conduct of bully states that have historically resulted in war" - the delay is a sure sign that the bullies don't know what to do next.
They presumably thought that the Qataris would buckle under their threat, and didn't bother to work out their next move if it didn't. So what happens now? Does Saudi Arabia invade Qatar? It could easily do so if it wanted to: Qatar has one-tenth of Saudi Arabia's population, an undefended land border, and tiny armed forces.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has the support of Donald Trump in his blockade of Qatar, and he could probably talk Trump into accepting an invasion, too. Moreover, this is the man who committed Saudi Arabian forces to the vicious civil war in Yemen on the mere (and largely unfounded) suspicion that Iran is helping the rebels militarily.
Bin Salman's terms for ending the blockade of Qatar were so harsh that it looks like he wanted them to be rejected. The 13 demands included completely shutting down the Qatar-based al-Jazeera media group, whose satellite-based television network is the least censored and most trusted news organisation in the Arab world.
TO END ALL
Qatar was to break all contact with the Muslim Brotherhood, a largely non-violent and pro-democratic Islamic movement that was a leading force in the Arab Spring of 2010-11. It was to end all support for radical Islamist rebel groups in Syria, and, above all, for the organisation that was called the Nusra Front until late last year. (It then changed its name in an attempt to hide its ties to al-Qaeda.)
Finally, Qatar was to end practically all trade and diplomatic contact with Iran, even though its income comes almost entirely from the huge gas field it shares with Iran. Oh, and it must pay compensation for the nuisance it has caused, and accept regular monitoring of its compliance with these terms for the next 10 years.
The four countries operating the blockade (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahradi and Egypt - three absolute monarchies and one military dictatorship) are really just trying to suppress democratic ideas in the region. The accusation that Qatar is "supporting terrorism" would be more convincing if Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had not been doing exactly the same thing.
They all helped the Nusra Front with money, and ignored its ties with al-Qaeda because it was fighting the Shia-dominated regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Now they have all stopped doing that, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE are condemning Qatar for doing it: the pot is calling the kettle black. But the 'supporting terrorism' charge does get the Americans (or at least one ill-informed American called Donald Trump) on board.
A PRICE TO PAY
Qatar will pay a price for rejecting the Saudi demands. Almost all its food is imported, and, in future, it will all have to come in by sea or by air. But Qatar is rich enough to pay that price.
In the end, Saudi Arabia will almost certainly not invade. The 10,000 American troops based in Qatar give it no political protection (Washington will always put Saudi Arabia first), but the mere hundred-odd Turkish troops who are based there would help to defend the country if Qatar chose to resist.
"We don't need permission from anyone to establish military bases among partners," said Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "We endorse and appreciate Qatar's stand towards the 13 demands." Saudi Arabia won't risk even a small war with Turkey, so it will restrict itself to using its financial clout to stop other countries from trading with Qatar.
As Omar Ghobash, the UAE's ambassador to Russia, told the Guardian newspaper last week: "One possibility would be to impose conditions on our own trading partners and say that if you want to work with us, then you have got to make a commercial choice (to boycott Qatar)."
But that's not likely to work either. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has started another fight he can't finish.
- Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.
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