Wed | Aug 16, 2017

Egerton Chang | Raining cats and Trump; and aliases

Published:Sunday | October 16, 2016 | 10:00 AM

It seems that while he had efficiently consigned the campaigns of his GOP rivals to the dogs, Trump has specially reserved his to go to the cats.

Though it was true that following Trump's poor performance in the first presidential debate, the polls had been moving significantly in Hillary's favour, it would seem that this recent revelation of a pussycat in the bush, · la Billy Bush of Access Hollywood, has really put Hillary irrevocably out of reach.

And despite the fact that Donald did not perform as badly as in the first, the optics of 'stalking' Hillary and his petty, lying, virago (an angry woman who often complains about and criticises other people) tongue-lashing presentation in the second debate hasn't helped his cause.

In my column of August 21, 2016, titled Immortal Bolt; dump Trump; and tax amnesty, I wrote:

"I have a far-out theory (proposed in jest) about the US elections.

It is that Trump met with the Clintons before he got into the race (as he, in fact, did) and formulated a plan to destroy the Republican Party. (Smile.) Seriously, why else would he be doing or saying all these things?

 

HARDCORE SUPPORT

 

Funny, they did not think all these innuendos and downright lies would have created such a following, actually 30-35 per cent of hardcore support.

This should have been seen as a possible outcome as it is not rocket science, given the constituent make-up (and dumbness) of the American people.

With the virtual disintegration of the RNC, particularly over the last weekend, as illustrated by the 'war' between Trump and numerous Republican big wigs, culminating in the latest battle with House Speaker Paul Ryan, the proverbial cup is virtually empty.

While some 70 per cent of Republicans say they, in effect, would vote for the worst Republican candidate rather than vote for Hillary, this is one of the lowest levels of support for a Republican nominee.

The number of his supporters may still go down because of these new revelations, however, and what remains are really hard core, and, as a result, the bottom will never truly fall out. In fact, don't expect his poll numbers to decline by more than two to four points over the less than four weeks to election day.

Unfortunately for the Republican Party, these additional two to four points will definitely put control of the house in play, a seemingly impossible thought before now.

The latest national polls (up to Thursday, October 13), as per Real Clear Politics, all show Clinton with leads varying from four per cent to 11 per cent, with the USC/LA Times poll, coming in as a tie, being considered an outlier, especially as that poll uses a different methodology.

 

Real Clear Politics

 

The Real Clear Politics average of all these polls is now a sizeable 6.2 per cent Clinton margin. And it is worthy of note that these polls appear to be trending upwards to bigger margins for Hillary the closer one gets to the election.

With more and more women coming out of the woodwork to accuse Trump of groping/non-consensual kissing (four at time of submission), it appears that this time, especially when early voting is already in progress in some states, the negative effects will stick.

As of the same morning, the highly respected FiveThirtyEight rates Clinton's chances of winning a huge 86.9 per cent, while it rates the chances of a Trump victory at 13.1 per cent.

Simultaneously, the Princeton Election Consortium had this at 94 per cent for Clinton and six per cent for Trump, and the Huffington Post calculated the respective chances at 90.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent.

The bookmakers, using Paddy Power as an example, are offering 1/6 for a Clinton win and 5/1 for a Trump victory. These are the shortest and the longest odds ever offered since the race started. And if you had bet on a winning horse at Caymanas Park, paying 1/6, don't be surprised if all you got was your money back.

If, on election day, the voting data shift further unfavourable against Trump by the two to four points aforesaid, it could mean a landslide, with Hillary winning more electoral votes than Obama, Bush, or Bill ever accomplished (379EV-Bill-1996).

What about the Senate? As of October 13, FiveThirtyEight has the probability of the Democrats gaining control at 57.1 per cent, while the Princeton Election Consortium gives the DNC a 67 per cent shot. Remember that the vice-president has a deciding vote to cast, and so with a Democratic president, a 50/50 Senate effectively means Democratic control.

Then what? With Trump pushing the notion that the election (if he doesn't win) is rigged and with an appreciable number of his staunchest backers buying into this, the post-election scenarios might be quite ugly.

Hillary will consider her days in the White House, as the first woman president, dealing with Russia, China, ISIS, the deficit, etc, a cakewalk compared to dealing with first Sanders and then Trump!

 

Aliases and AKAs

 

You have probably heard of nicknames and aliases of such criminals as Rat Bat, Dawg Paw, Kitty Paw, Dudus, John Crow, Copper, Sandokhan, and Dawg Heart and wonder how they got their monikers.

I have often wondered myself. But certain personal situations have given me certain clues.

For example, I use Knutsford Express to send and receive intra-island packages. The staff in that section are quite pleasant. So, one day one, of the ladies asked me my name. I jokingly said to her, "Call me anything. call me Chang-a-lang."

From that day onwards, she has referred to me as Mr Chang-a-lang. Other employees soon began to call me that, and now, all the staff in that department know me as Mr Chang-a-lang.

Similarly, I have occasion to pass through Clock Tower Plaza at least two to three times per week, and the staff that control the gate barriers have got to know me quite well. During the search for Dudus a few years aback, I had jokingly said to one of them that Dudus might be anywhere, in disguise if needs be, having a good time and mingling with everyday folks. One day, I said in jest to one in particular, "In fact, I could be Dudus in disguise."

No matter how far-fetched that idea is, I, being slim and Chinese, and the real Dudus being fat and black, the gate man began to call me 'Dudus'. Whenever he shouted 'Dudus', I would playfully put my finger over my lips in that pose indicating the universal 'keep quiet', 'shssss', 'hold it down', 'not so loud', 'don't let anybody hear'.

This continued throughout the search, so much so that pretty soon, all the gate attendants got to calling me 'Dudus'.

Unfortunately, they still call me 'Dudus', to my chagrin.

Finally, I once had working for me a 'Birdie', a 'Bull', a 'Geese', and a 'Deer'. A business colleague of mine one day remarked inquisitively, "Do you have any humans working there?" LoL.

- Egerton Chang is a businessman. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and e_rider69@hotmail.com.