Sun | Jan 21, 2018

Letter of the Day | Minority vote will take Clinton over the line

Published:Tuesday | November 1, 2016 | 12:00 AM


With just days to go before the November 8 United States (US) presidential election, most national polls are showing a tightening of the race, indicating that the outcome might be a cliffhanger akin to what we saw between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

Of course, no one will ever forget that nail-biter where it came down to the state of Florida and its 29 electoral votes that pushed Bush over the edge in what is still arguably the most controversial presidential race in US history. We will also recall that while Gore won the popular vote, Bush won the majority of electoral college votes, albeit barely, and thus the White House.

I don't think this race will mirror anything like what we saw in 2000. Not even remotely close. Actually, I am predicting a Hillary Clinton victory in what could well turn out to be the biggest landslide since Ronald Reagan amassed 525 Electoral College votes in the 1984 race against his Democratic challenger, Walter Mondale.

What many Trump backers and a number of pundits are not taking into consideration is the power of the minority vote and the telling effect it will have on the outcome of the race. True, Trump's numbers on the national scale are indeed flattering - very flattering. But so did Mondale at this stage of the race in 1984.

The problem is that he cannot win the presidency by carrying the white vote only. No president in the modern era of American politics has won the presidency by polling the numbers Trump is currently polling among minorities. Actually, the last two Republican nominees, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012, were polling far better among blacks and Hispanics than Trump is currently doing. And let us not forget the biggest minority group of all - women.




Not only is Clinton clobbering him among blacks, Latinos, Muslims, Asians and all the other minority groups; she is also beating him solidly with women and with numbers far better than what Barack Obama had against Romney in 2012.

So when you tally all of these factors and take an impartial look at where the race is today, there is only one conclusion one can reasonably draw. This has the making of a blowout in favour of the Clinton juggernaut.

Don't mind that FBI email distraction last Friday and the seemingly new-lease-on-life approach being displayed by the Trump surrogates; this race is over.

And so, like her or hate her, please get ready to usher in a new era of American politics and welcome the country's first female president - Hillary Rodham Clinton.


Ironshore, St James