Fri | Jan 19, 2018

Letter of the Day | It might all come down to Florida

Published:Tuesday | November 8, 2016 | 12:00 AM


As Americans go to the polls today, millions across the world will be breathlessly anticipating the outcome of what might well go down as the strangest, if not the most contentious, presidential election in US modern history.

And they might not have long to wait! While many in the political know are predicting a close race, there is at least some indication that the outcome might be known from as early as 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, which is about when I am expecting the first real big announcement from the networks.

The fact is that despite all the noise and back and forth that have been taking place, especially in the case of Donald Trump, it might all come down to Florida and its 29 electoral votes.

It is very difficult, some say impossible, to foresee a Trump victory if he loses Florida. Assuming Hillary Clinton comes through in all the states that are slightly or solidly leaning Democratic, and which currently show her having 268 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, all she has to do to take the suspense out of the game from early is to win Florida.

For Trump, though, the math gets a little stickier. It all starts with Florida. If he loses the Sunshine State, he has to run the table with other battleground states such as North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio. And if that is not enough, he has to hope for a Hail Mary in at least two of the traditional blue Democratic states like, say, a Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico or Wisconsin.

So, again, it's as simple as this. Lose the Sunshine State and it will be a long, lonely night in Trump Tower for Trump. However, for the Clinton team, win Florida, and it is game, set and match. And, oh, Madam President.


Ironshore, St James