John RapleyAS FAR as political drama goes, you can't do much better than this year's American elections. But when it comes to producing a mandate to govern, it's another matter. The results were so close that there may conceivably be changes in the result in coming days. Regardless, the victor at every level has emerged with a meagre approval.
Republicans may celebrate their apparent victories in retaining control of the House of Representatives and, barely, the Senate. However, they would be wrong to read a sweeping mandate in the poll verdict.
They beat-off the Democratic challenge, but only just. If anything, the vote appears to have been an endorsement of incumbency rather than a nod in favour of the Republican agenda. That, and the fact that the Republicans are themselves divided, will produce a Congress which will find it difficult to implement a sweeping legislative agenda.
As for the Presidential race, the outcome was decided by the narrowest of margins, both in the electoral college vote and, more importantly, the popular vote. It thus has to be said that the likely victor, George W. Bush, cannot claim a strong vote of confidence in his proposed legislative agenda. Add this to the divisions in Congress, and we are likely to see a fair degree of immobilism over the next couple of years. That's all well and fine if economic conditions continue to be as rosy as they have been. If anything, the markets will appreciate a do-nothing period in Washington. However, should things take a turn for the worse, an ineffective government could become a severe liability.
If the Congressional verdict was a vote for more of the same, what then can be said of the Presidential race? For starters, the next President of the United States has not received anything more than the most hesitant of endorsements from the American public. Nevertheless, the very fact of his victory speaks volumes. Given the state of the economy, one would have expected Vice President Al Gore to have been a shoo-in. It is therefore a crushing blow to have not done better than he did. He has many critics in the Democratic Party who say he ran an inept campaign that squandered what should have been a huge lead. Indeed, they maintain, his steadfast refusal to draw President Bill Clinton into the race cost him dearly.
I think that is an unfair judgement. There is not much polling evidence which suggests Bill Clinton could have swung this election towards Al Gore. There is, moreover, evidence which suggests too high a profile by Mr. Clinton would have cost Mr. Gore dearly.
Personal scandals
Indeed, it may be telling that in one state in which Mr. Clinton did campaign aggressively, his native Arkansas, the voters ended up favouring Mr. Bush.
In truth, Mr. Gore inherited a number of liabilities over which he had little control. Mr. Clinton's personal scandals energised the Republican base and lost Mr. Gore some of the independent vote. Meanwhile, Mr. Clinton's move to the right alienated some of the Democratic Party's traditional left-wing constituency. Some of this support moved over to Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate. In a few key states that Mr. Gore would have otherwise won, the Nader factor appears to have drawn away enough Democratic votes to make the Republicans competitive. And in trying to shore up his support base with some populist rhetoric, Mr. Gore apparently lost some conservative Democratic support in states like West Virginia.
Thus, Mr. Gore's struggle represented his own attempt to wrestle with the tensions and contradictions bequeathed to him by Mr. Clinton. In that sense, Mr. Clinton's supporters have no call to say their man would have done any better. My own guess is that Mr. Gore played the best game he could have after having been dealt a pretty bad hand. To say the economy is in great shape is, in my opinion, just a bit too glib. The complications hidden beneath its surface, such as the fact that many poorer voters who might normally lean towards the Democrats hadn't tasted the fruits of the boom, made his job a lot more difficult than it appeared.
When all is said and done, the Republicans may celebrate. But they have little cause to gloat.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
