JAMAICANS SEE little prospect for the job market opening up, and not much hope of the business climate showing immediate improvement, according to a newly-introduced survey.
Their pessimism is fuelled in part by cuts in employment and concerns about crime which have pushed the fourth-quarter results of the Index of Consumer Confidence to 111.0, down a marginal 1.9 points or 1.7 per cent from the third quarter results.
Consumers who reported good prospects for jobs came in at 20 per cent up from 17 per cent in the third quarter, but in looking to the year ahead, 60 per cent expected job prospects to worsen, up from 55 per cent the previous quarter.
However, the majority of consumers surveyed still expected their income to increase or remain unchanged in 2002, and more people are likely to take vacations, even with majority expectation of rising prices, suggesting that Jamaicans have other income sources outside the formal economy.
The Consumer Index, the first to be published in the English-speaking Caribbean, showed consumer confidence increasing 12.9 points in the third quarter, over the base index of 100.0 recorded at the second quarter when the index was introduced, before recording a fourth quarter decline that was not 'statistically significant'.
Its intent is to assess the mood of consumers in relation to their buying decisions, giving businesses a basis on which to make investment decisions. The surveys are carried out under the auspices of the Jamaica Conference Board, an affiliate of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC). An index above 100 indicates more positive consumer confidence, while below indicates declining confidence.
The component 'current job prospects' registered a poor 23.0 on the index, the same for the third quarter, while 'expected change in job prospects' registered at 60, down from 67 the previous quarter. 'Expected change in income' came in at 122.0, no change from the third quarter.
"Overall, half of all consumers expected their standard of living to improve during 2002, compared with just 15 per cent who expected it to worsen," said the survey.
In relation to the prospects for business, 39 per cent thought conditions were bad, up two percentage points over the third quarter, while 46 per cent expected conditions to worsen in the coming year.
The Index of Consumer Confidence comprises the sub-indices of 'Current Economic Conditions' which is measured based on current business conditions and current job prospects; and 'Consumer Expectations' which incorporates expected change in business conditions, expected change in job prospects, and expected change in income.
The index is to be published quarterly, but according to JCB executive director, Trevor Fearon, plans are under way to have it done twice monthly, then monthly.
The surveys, done by Don Anderson's Marketing Research Services Ltd, have a sample size of 600 on the consumer side, and 100 from the business community. American Professor Richard Curtin, head of the Department of Consumer Surveys, University of Michigan, who assists with the analyses, said that the questions to consumers cover issues relating to both the formal and informal economy.
