By Roger Cave, Contributor FORTRESS MUTUAL FUND
For the period between December 31, 2001 and November 30, 2001, the Barbados Stock Exchange recorded a decline of 5.9 per cent, Trinidad a decline of 3.7 per cent and Jamaica an increase of 14.9 per cent.
Marginal performances were seen in the three main indices during the month with Barbados showing a 0.14 per cent increase, Trinidad up 2.2 per cent and Jamaica up 1.8 per cent.
This assessment is based on the Fortress Market Update, which shows the returns investors would have realised by investing in the Top 10 performing companies in each stock market. The analysis evaluates the movement in the share price from the beginning of the year to the end of the above-mentioned month and converts the return to US$. The returns do not include dividends or transaction costs.
BARBADOS
The index in Barbados moved marginally in November despite the 1.7 per cent drop in both Goddard Enterprises and B'dos Shipping & Trading, the 1.6 per cent decline in Light & Power and the 10.4 per cent decline in Banks Holdings. Barbados Dairy reported for the year end 2001 with net income at $4.74M up from $2.2M in 2000. This increase represents a phenomenal increase in eps of 112.77 per cent. The market will be patiently awaiting the results of Banks Holdings the parent company of B'dos Dairy and we do expect the performance of Dairy along with the strong market presence of the Banks brands this year will significantly help Banks for 2001year end.
TRINIDAD
Top five performers in Trinidad for the month of November were Neal & Massy (up 20.4 per cent), LJWilliams B (up 16.1 per cent), Guardian Holdings (up 14.9 per cent), Trinidad Cement (up11.7 per cent) and Trinidad Publishing (up 24 per cent).
Many companies listed have reported earnings with most having good results but all related MD&A analyses shows most companies will be treading into the future cautiously. The main news stories for the month was an announcement from NEL stating that they will be purchasing 37.84 per cent of the National Gas Company - a subsidiary of NGC LNG. This will in effect give NEL an indirect 3.8 per cent interest in Atlantic LNG and 20% of NGC's 51 per cent stake in Phoenix Park Gas Processors Ltd. The other big announcement came from Guardian and Neal & Massy where Neal & Massy has agreed to sell its general insurance operations to Guardian with Guardian financing the deal with a swap of 16 million Neal & Massy shares to which Neal & Massy will cancel.
JAMAICA
In November, Palace Amusement headed the Top five with a 54.5 per cent increase in share price followed by MoBay Freeport up 38.9 per cent, Radio Jamaica up 23.9 per cent, Desnoes & Geddes up 10 per cent and Mobay Ice up 9.7 per cent.
In terms of trade volumes this month, November has been the second lowest month on record for this year with a total of just over 36 million shares trading hands for a total value of just over USD$4.8 million. The remainder of the year looks a little bleak since many of the real value stocks are likely to disappoint and the prospects of many of the "growth" companies have been revised and makes them all the more unattractive at this time. As though mimicking the current scene in the retail business, investors will pick and choose through this month looking for that "bargain" and many may not buy at all but wait until the new year to see what will unfold.
