St Ann North-Eastern - PNP will win in close contest
By Anthony Myers, Contributor
IN ANOTHER close contest, the PNP will win the St. Ann North-Eastern seat by a significantly reduced margin.
St. Ann North-Eastern was among the 13 newly-created constituencies in 1959 as a result of an advancement in the constitution. The parish of St. Ann which was divided into two constituencies for the December 14, 1944 General Election, received two additional seats. The boundaries were redrawn and four new constituencies were created namely - St. Ann North-Eastern, St. Ann North-Western, St. Ann South-Eastern and St. Ann South-Western.
The constituency of St. Ann North-Eastern is comprised within the area bounded by the following:
From a point on the St. Ann/St Mary parish boundary where the parochial road leading to the JPSCo. station touches the parish boundary, along this parochial road to the White River/Lodge main road, and easterly along this main road to the township of Lodge. It then goes southerly along a parochial road leading from Lodge through Mile End and Union Pen to the Go-shen/Hopewell main road, then westerly along this main road to Orange Park. From there it meets parochial road No. 14 from Islington, westerly along this parochial road to its junction with the Drax Hall/Golden Grove main road. It then goes northerly along this main road to Trafalgar, then westerly along the Trafalgar/Green Park Road to its junction with the Claremont/Bamboo main road, then along this main road to the Interior Road. From there it goes westerly along the Great Interior Road to its junction with the road leading to King Hill, along this road to the road leading to Mills Town, then along this road through Mills Town to Dry Market. From this point it goes in an imaginary line to the western boundary of Cheppen-ham, then northerly along that boundary to where it meets the Great Interior Road to parochial road No. 392, along this parochial road to its end, then from this point in an imaginary line to parochial road No. 43 at Chester. From there it goes along this parochial road to where it meets the Little Laughlands River on the St. Ann's Bay/Runaway main road, then northerly along this river to the sea, easterly along the seacoast to the White River (St. Ann/St. Mary parish boundary) to the starting point.
Of the nine contested General Elections (Parliamentary) in St. Ann North-Eastern, 1959-1997, the PNP won eight times to the JLP's one. There were four by-elections during the period 1973-2001, the PNP winning in 1973, 1974 and 1978 and the JLP in 2001. A careful examination of the voting pattern would suggest that the PNP support has been strong and consistent. The constituency was won in 1959 and 1962 by Edwin R. Tucker for the PNP defeating Sydney A. Lambie of the JLP by convincing majorities on both occasions. When Wills O. Isaacs decided not to contest the newly-created Kingston Central constituency in 1967 his next stop was St. Ann North-Eastern where he found safe haven, winning the seat for the PNP by a majority of 984. Michael Manley, who replaced the "Bishop", in Kingston Central won by a mere 43 as he polled 4,367 votes to the JLP's E.K. Powell 4,324. Wills Isaacs increased his 1967 majority in the 1972 General Election polling 6,421 votes to 3,552 for the JLP's Alwyn Tai, a 2,869 majority.
In 1973, Wills Isaacs retired from active politics, his secretary Hazel Hamilton contested the by-election, defeating Pearnel Charles of the JLP by a mere 569 votes. Hamilton died in 1974 and Vivian Blake contested a by-election, September 3, 1974, defeating the JLP's Robert Marsh by 1,000 votes. In 1976 Vivian Blake, with Danny Melville as his campaign manager, successfully contested the St. Ann North-Eastern seat for the PNP, polling 8,660 votes to the JLP's Robert A. Marsh's 5,470, a majority of
3,190. Vivian Blake retired within two years of being elected and the people of North East St Ann were once again without a representative. On August 3, 1978, a by-election was held to fill the vacancy. Vinroy Brown, the PNP's representative, by polling 5,083 votes, defeated A. Charles Johnson (JUF) 191, and L.Perkins (IND), 960. The JLP did not contest the by-election.
The 1980 General Election returned the JLP to power as the PNP lost the North East St. Ann constituency for the first time. JLP river came down bank to bank with Robert Marsh (JLP), polling 9,979 votes to 6,941 for Vinroy Brown, the PNP incumbent, a majority of 3,083. Norman W.M Bowen who had comfortable victories for the PNP in 1989 and 1993 gave way to Danny Melville who was no stranger to North East St. Ann. With the voters' list for the 1997 General Election showing an increase of 49 per cent over the 1993 list, Danny Melville had a convincing 2,088 majority over Michael Belnavis (JLP). The results were: PNP - 9,150; JLP - 7,062; NDM - 518. The departure of Danny Melville, having resigned as the Member of Parliament, and the subsequent shock defeat of the PNP at the hands of the JLP in the March 8, 2001 by-election, have undoubtedly changed the political landscape of St. Ann North-Eastern.
This is a unique constituency, in that between 1959 and 1997 it has had four by-elections and eight different members of parliament; no other constituency in Jamaica has had this most unfortunate experience. Consequently, the voters of St. Ann North-Eastern who had been so traumatised by the poor representation of their members of parliament over the last 34 years (1967-2001) sent a clear and unequivocal message to the incumbent PNP administration on March 8, 2001. The North East St Ann voters were saying for the first time - no support without proper representation; we are tired of having "fly-by-night" "representatives - enough is enough. Eighteen hundred voters who supported the PNP in 1997, stayed home, thus giving the JLP a victory that sent shock waves through the ranks of the PNP. The question is: "Did the PNP get the message?" On the other hand: "Did the JLP let the shipwreck of their main opponent be their sea marks?" Only time will tell.
The March 8, 2001 results were more than a wake-up call for the PNP; it was a strong reminder to the incumbent government that power comes from the electorate and those who use such power unwisely will surely lose it. With the current voters' list showing an increase of 3,908 (14.9 per cent) registered voters over the 1997 list, the JLP has an excellent chance of retaining the seat in the upcoming general election. However, should the 1997 supporters of the PNP who stayed home in the 2001 by-election decide to reconnect with the PNP by giving their support once again, the incumbent member of parliament could find the going pretty tough.
Based on all available data, the PNP enjoy a greater level of support in North East, St. Ann than the JLP. Can the PNP machinery translate such support into ballots cast on election day? In another close contest, the PNP will win by a significantly reduced margin.
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.
General Election Parliamentary)
Projection 2002
2002 E/L 30,173
A/B 19,590 (64.9%)
PNP 10,130 (51.7%)
JLP 9,460 (48.3%)
Majority (PNP) 670
General Elections (Summary)
1959-1997
St. Ann North Eastern
1959 E/L 14,104
B/C 9,958
R/B 116
S.A. Lambie, JLP 3,272
Edwin R. Tucker, PNP 6,570
1962 EL 13,830
B/C 10,804
A/B 10,728
R/B 76
Sedley A. Johns, PPP 130
Sidney A. Lambie, JLP 4,422
Edwin R. Tucker, PNP 6,176
1967 E/L 9,523
B/C 7,994
A/B 7,930
R/B 64
Pat Burke, JLP 3,473
Wills O. Isaacs, PNP 4,457
1972 E/L 11,935
B/C 10,025
A/B
9,973
R/B
52
Wills O. Isaacs, PNP 6,421
Alwyn J.Thai, JLP 3,552
1976 E/L 16,580
B/C 14,184
A/B 14,130
R/B 54
Robert Marsh, JLP 5,470
1980
E/L
19,440
B/C
17,091
A/B
16,920
R/B 171
Vinroy Brown, PNP 6,941
Robert Marsh, JLP 9,979
1983 E/L 19,440
Robert E. Marsh (JLP) elected unopposed by acclamation.
