THE latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the Jamaica Chamber Board the research arm of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce indicates that the sector remains confident about the future. Interestingly the Index was only slightly higher than the previous quarter (117.7) but this was 14% higher than in the same quarter one year ago and the highest for any quarter during the past year. Quite significantly, firms were more optimistic about the performance of the overall Jamaican economy than they were about their individual firms. As a result the Index Business Expectation fell marginally.On the downside, it is noteworthy that despite the overall optimism exhibited by local businesses, they were somewhat more cautious about whether it was a good time to invest. Additionally, where the Index of Consumer Confidence is concerned, consumers were less optimistic about the economy with the index declining slightly in the last two quarters. This pessimism was linked to concerns about future job prospects.
Without doubt however a most significant feature of the latest survey results is that they suggest a radically new perspective among business leaders on the likely impact of elections. Specifically, one out of five businessmen in discussing the reasons for their expectation of growth felt that, whichever party won the elections, would impact positively on the economy.
This is a far cry from the traditional perception of the elections as having a negative impact on the economy and specifically business planning. Even if a case is argued for a deeper analysis of the results, these findings definitely augur well for the economy and suggest a new sophistication regarding the likely impact of national elections.
This is happening at a time of great anxiety about a world economy plagued by uncertainty. This is especially so for the U.S. economy with the prospect of a war that could impact on oil prices. Bullishness among local business is therefore most significant at this time and suggests a strong belief in our capacity to design appropriate policies to keep the economy on course in a potentially hostile external climate.
The policy makers deserve some credit for this. However, it may not be coincidental that this new found business confidence comes against the background of stepped up activities by the local business community in putting what it regards as the critical issues on the national agenda, as happened with private sector leaders at the recent Gleaner Editors Forum.
After the elections business leaders should keep pursuing their demands. This will keep our democracy vibrant and also help increase the economy's capacity to meet consumers' concerns about providing more jobs.
