Dan Rather NOW COMES the shouting. Congressional Democrats and President Bush both rolled out their self-styled 'economic stimulus' plans last week, and the two camps are separated by hundreds of billions of dollars and competing charges of class warfare.
President Bush's plan would cost an estimated US$600 billion. The biggest share of this -- by far -- would come from his proposed elimination of the tax on corporate stock dividends; until the plan was unveiled this week, even President Bush's closest supporters expected the President to ask not for outright elimination of this tax, but for a 50 per cent reduction. Further, advance reports had the President's package, like that offered by the Democrats, including aid to the states; the official version does not. As one major newspaper put it, we can expect a storm of "hurricane force" to blow from both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Such a storm might well be brewing, but will all this sound and fury signify anything, in the end? It should not be forgotten that President Bush's party is now in control of both houses of Congress. The President holds the whip hand, and by asking for more than expected on the dividend tax while giving less than advertised on state aid, he has left himself plenty of room to negotiate.
President Bush and his White House have shown that they aren't afraid to ask for the moon, the sun and the stars, even if all they (secretly) hope to get is the moon. Witness the repeated calls for immediate repeal of the estate tax, or retroactive repeal of the corporate alternative minimum tax: While these measures were blocked in the Senate, the President has been able to get much of the rest of his economic agenda passed -- notably, more than a trillion dollars in tax cuts. That's an awfully big moon.
True, sometimes this strategy, if that's what it is, fails: President Bush's proposal to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling was sufficiently controversial to sink his entire energy package. In general, though, by making bold demands, the President has been able to satisfy his political base while ensuring that something remains of his legislative proposals after the horse-trading is done.
So now President Bush has surprised once again by asking for more than expected. And why wouldn't he? Given the results of the 2002 elections, he just might get most of what he wants. The moon, sun and stars are in an especially favourable alignment for the President right now.
There are some things in that firmament, though, that the President will need to watch out for. One is Tom Daschle, the Senate Minority Leader, who just last week took himself out of Presidential contention. During his tenure as Majority Leader, Daschle was criticised by many in his party for too often going along with the President. But in his previous stint as Minority Leader, Senator Daschle was known for keeping uncharacteristic discipline among his Democratic troops, as he manipulated Senate rules to prevent one Republican measure after another from coming to a vote. Daschle's decision not to run in 2004 might signal that he has decided to rededicate himself to fighting the President on the Senate floor.
The other potential problem for President Bush is time. With budget season approaching, it is in the President's interest to gain passage of his package before the American public gets a possible taste of how tax cuts translate into cuts in domestic programmes. By making his plan so ambitious, President Bush might well have hurt his chances for quick adoption.
The sun, the moon, the stars -- and a hurricane, too. Is it any wonder your reporter loves politics?
Dan Rather is a television news anchor. Copyright 2003 DJR Inc. Distributed by King Features Syndicate.
