Norman GirvanNarcotics and security
IN THE global crime industry, the traffic in illegal drugs is a major component. Heroin, cocaine and cannabis (ganja) are the principal commodities. Although cannabis is the leader in terms of users, unit prices and profits are highest for heroin and cocaine. The industrial countries are the major markets for illegal drugs, though consumption has been increasing steadily in the developing world and in eastern Europe.
While the heroin trade originates in Asia, the cocaine and cannabis trade is centred in the Americas. Estimates published by the United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention (UNODCCP, Global Illicit Drug Trends 2002) provide an outline of the scale and geographical pattern of the industry in the hemisphere.
For cocaine, just three countries are reported to account for global production: Bolivia, Colombia and Peru. Estimates are given for area cultivated in coca, potential production of coca leaf and potential production of cocaine.
The figures indicate significant changes in the second half of the 1980s and in the 1990s. Between 1985 and 1999 estimated global cultivation increased by 83 per cent, but coca leaf production more than doubled and cocaine production more than tripled. In other words, yields have increased dramatically due to improved production methods and technology.
There has also been a marked shift in the location of production from Bolivia and Peru to Colombia. In 1985 Colombia's share in the industry was small. By 2001, it accounted for 69 per cent of coca cultivation, 77 per cent of potential coca leaf production and 75 per cent of potential cocaine production.
The shift helps to explain why the Greater Caribbean region occupies a central position in trans-shipment routes for both the North American and European markets. An OAS report on Maritime Drug Trafficking Routes and Methods in the Americas (CICAD/ Doc.984/98) identifies two major routing areas: the "Amazon corridor and the "Caribbean
corridor".
The Amazon corridor involves parts of Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, Colombia, Bolivia and Paraguay. The Caribbean corridor involves the countries of northern South and Central America and the island chain.
The Caribbean corridor itself involves two routes, both originating from Colombia's North Coast and from Venezuela. One is centred on Puerto Rico, where the drug is repackaged and staged for direct shipments into the US East Coast.
"Go-fast boats" follow the Venezuelan coastline and proceed either directly to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti or keeping close to the coasts of the eastern Caribbean islands, blending with normal traffic.
In the second, vessels follow a northwesterly course into the western Caribbean to locations on or near the shore of the Yucatan Peninsula for off-loading of cocaine to transit Mexico.
In 1999, 33 countries in the Greater Caribbean provided estimates of trafficking (Table). The list includes most of the Caribbean islands, large and small, independent and non-independent and all of Central America. Many believe that this trafficking lies behind the steep growth in homicides in several countries in recent years. (See Table 1)
CANNABIS CONNECTIONS
Cannabis (ganja) is the most popular illegal drug worldwide, with an estimated 147 million users, compared to 13 million for cocaine and 9 million for heroin. It is grown in all regions of the world, the United States itself being a major producer. In 2000, one-half of world trafficking took place in the Greater Caribbean region, by United Nations estimates.
The big difference between cannabis and other illegal drugs is in unit prices and profits. In the United States the average price of cannabis herb is roughly one-eighth that of cocaine on wholesale and retail markets. The price differential reflects the considerably greater narcotic effects of cocaine (demand
factor) and the concentration of control efforts on this drug
(supply factor).
For the small countries of Central America and the island Caribbean, cannabis exceeds cocaine in trafficking by a factor of 3.4 in terms of quantity, but is less than 40 per cent of the cocaine trade in value, when measured by prices on the U.S. market.
When the countries on the northern rim of South America are included, the value comparison turns even more decisively in favour of cocaine.
The economics of relative prices and returns vis-a-vis risks explain the shifts in the trade during the 1980s and 1990s. With the rapid growth in the cocaine trade from South America to North America and Europe, the Caribbean region came to occupy a strategic geographic position for warehousing, packaging and trans-shipment. Criminal syndicates with a continental reach are said to have utilised existing cannabis distribution networks based in the western Caribbean mainland and islands.
In business terms, strategic alliances were made, based on the complementary assets of the partners: control over supply and distribution networks of the major syndicates and the locational advantages of the
intermediaries.
Geo-economic changes in production and supply corridors in the late 1990s resulted in a shifting of trans-shipments routes towards the eastern Caribbean. With this came new alliances and their inevitable spin-offs in the form of turf wars. Money-laundering through off-shore financial centres added to the mix.
The dimensions of these developments demand a regional approach, as proposed by the recent report by the CARICOM Regional Task Force on Crime and Security. But the scale of the problem suggests that regionalism will need to extend to the entire region of the Greater Caribbean.
Professor Norman Girvan is Secretary General of the Association of Caribbean States. The views expressed are not necessarily the official views of the ACS. Feedback can be sent to mail@acs-aec.org
