ON MONDAY night, President George W. Bush, in a calm but determined television broadcast to the world, gave Saddam Hussein and his sons 48 hours to leave Iraq or face a military invasion by American and British troops. That ultimatum expires at 8 o'clock tonight after which, at a time to be determined by the president, the war will begin.
World opinion, including, we suspect, a majority of Jamaicans, opposes a unilateral attack by the United States without a renewed United Nations mandate although legal scholars are divided as to whether such an attack violates international law. Clouding the pros and cons of the Iraq issue itself is a general, overriding distaste for America as the world's only remaining superpower, and some countries, like France, use the debate as a not so subtle means of trying to dilute American hegemony.
The Iraq debate itself comes down to two lines of reasoning. One holds that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction which, given their nature and the size of the country, could not be discovered by inspectors in the time available. According to this line of reasoning, because Iraq has not fully disarmed, America has a sovereign right to preclude likely future attacks against its citizens by a pre-emptive strike. The other line of reasoning insists that since no evidence of their existence has been found, Iraq must be presumed not to possess weapons of mass destruction and, therefore, cannot pose a threat to America. If there is no threat, then war is unjustified. The truth of either of these propositions is independent of world opinion. There is no divine right of 51 per cent.
As in so many debates involving a judgement of right and wrong, the morality of a course of action often depends on the factual outcome of events. If, in the forthcoming conflict, Iraq does unleash weapons of mass destruction against American forces, this would prove that Saddam has been lying, that President Bush and Prime Minister Blair were right all along and the invasion would be justified. On the other hand, if after the invasion there is still no evidence of weapons of mass destruction and casualties are high, American as well as Iraqi, the invasion would be wrong, President Chirac of France would be justified, America would be discredited and the political futures of Bush and Blair would be in considerable doubt.
What is not in doubt is that the war is going to affect the Jamaican economy in many unfortunate ways, from high fuel prices to declining tourist arrivals. Even if we suspend judgement on the morality of the war, we must pray that it will be quick and decisive.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
