John Rapley - Foreign Focus YOU CAN understand Canadian Prime Minister, Jean Chretien's, smugness. Set to retire early next year, he leaves his country united and prosperous, his ruling Liberal Party all but hegemonic. Having lanced the beast of Quebec separatism that threatened the nation when he took office a decade ago, this apparently unexceptional politician will probably be remembered favourably by Canadian history.
In 1993, he took over a country whose sluggish economy was losing manpower to its huge American neighbour. Its government was saddled with debt. Quebec nationalists were banging at the door and in 1995, came within a whisker of winning a referendum on secession. And across the land, a new right wing was advancing, winning provincial elections and delivering the country into the hands of tax-cutters who wanted to roll back federal programmes, much as their Republican mentors in the US were then doing.
TIRED THROWBACK TO AN EARLIER AGE
By comparison to these separatists and provincialists, Jean Chretien seemed a tired throwback to an earlier age. Indeed he was, having been in federal politics since the early 1960s. But, if something of a country bumpkin in all his public appearances, he knew how to play the old political game well. In a country that has traditionally preferred pragmatic problem-solving to skilful public relations, his talents would serve him well.
He chose a finance minister, Paul Martin, Jr., who represented the Liberal Party's business wing. The latter had been calling for firm action on the fiscal deficit. Through a painful but resolute programme of spending cuts, Mr. Martin succeeded in restoring the health of the country's finances. Today, while the US government sinks back into the red, the Canadian government is forecasting continued rises in surpluses.
THE DOLLAR STRENGTHENS
Accordingly, foreign investors, who had soured on the Canadian economy, have been returning. As a result, the much-maligned Canadian dollar, which in the 1990s was disparaged by some financial analysts as the northern peso, has recently been strengthening. In fact, so healthy is the Canadian economy that the Bank of Canada has recently had to raise interest rates just to keep economic growth in check. Next to its southern neighbour, which is doing all it can to avoid sliding back into recession, Canada looks better than ever.
All the same, for a time the attack on the deficit looked as if it might undermine the nation's viability. Endowed with a weak national identity, Canada has long been a country held together largely by federal programmes like public health care and education to which its citizens feel attached. The desire not to become American always defined the Canadian spirit.
And so, as the federal government cut back its programmes, the provinces began asserting their authority and demanding more powers. By the mid-1990s, many commentators were asking if Canada would be hollowed out at its core. Indeed, during the 1995 referendum campaign, Quebec's separatists argued that their province no longer needed the federal government.
STING IN THE
PROVINCIALIST'S TAIL
However, after the close referendum, Ottawa went on the attack. It introduced a law to prevent the Quebec government ever again calling a referendum with an ambiguous question. Because only a small minority of Quebecois support outright independence for their province, the separatists always hinted they would retain some link to Canada. By precluding this possibility in the future, Ottawa put the separatists on the defensive.
That, and the return of prosperity, took the sting from the provincialist tail. In recent elections, Quebec's separatists went down to defeat. Meanwhile, back in the black, Canada's government is returning to the generous ways of old. Its right-wing opposition, which came under the influence of the anti-federalist tendencies of the 1990s, now looks tired and is internally divided. The future for both the federal government and its ruling Liberal party, looks brighter than it has in a long time.
Recent differences with Washington over the war on Iraq and the apparent blunders surrounding the SARS epidemic, add a bit of tarnish to the image. Furthermore, Mr. Chretien's critics say the gains of recent years owe little to him and more to chance and other politicians. Be that as it may, Canada's bounce back occurred under his watch. Politics being what it is, he will get likely the credit. He is just first out of the blocks to claim it.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
