D.K. Duncan IT HAS been 22 years since the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) gained the support of the majority of the voters in <
a National Election contested by the two major parties.
After the Local Government elections of 1981, except for the uncontested Elections of 1983, the Peoples National Party (PNP) has won four Parliamentary and three Local Government elections. If present voting and polling trends continue, the JLP should
break this streak after losing seven consecutive National Elections.
PARTY STANDINGS
The PNP, with 52.5% to the JLP's 47.5%, won the 2002 General Election by a margin of five percentage points in the popular vote. Extrapolating from these results, the PNP would win eight Parish Councils to the JLP's three with two Councils tied. The Kingston and St. Andrew Corporation (KSAC) would be one of those tied because
of the skewed nature of
the voting primarily in the inner city.
The May Gleaner/Anderson poll findings, however, indicate a 8% swing to the JLP since the October elections. The findings of party preferences of 24.5% for the JLP and 19.7% for the PNP translates into 55.4% to 44.6% in favour of the JLP. This 55.4% represents a 7.9% increase in JLP support when compared to their 47.5% in the recent General Election.
Even assuming the full margin of error in favour of the PNP, the JLP would, at the least, be slightly ahead of the PNP in the Party standings. This kind of swing would result in the popular vote going to the Opposition for the first time since 1981. Based on the October 2002 results, the
JLP would win the Trelawny, St. James and Clarendon Councils with the KSAC
and St. Thomas tied. If the Gleaner/Anderson findings of the party standings hold - Table 1 shows that the JLP would be projected to win at least four additional Councils - the KSAC as well as the St. Thomas, St. Ann and St. Catherine Councils. Hanover and St. Elizabeth should be close.
It will be interesting to see if the electorate continues to vote mainly along party lines or if individual candidates make a significant impact in their respective Local Government divisions. (See table below)
The percentage Voter turn-out (VTO) could be the second lowest since Independence. The recent Gleaner/Anderson poll found that 56.5% of these registered indicate an intention to vote. The percentage VTO since 1962 has been decreasing steadily from a high of 66.5% in 1966 to 56% in 1990. The 35.1% turnout in 1998 was largely influenced by a split in the JLP as to whether they should contest. In the end the JLP Leader Edward Seaga did not participate while others in the party did.
While 56.5% indicate an intention to vote, the polls found that only 44.2% state a party preference. VTO, in the June 19, 2003 Elections, is likely to be much closer to 44% than 56%.
LOOKING AHEAD
After June 19, the ruling PNP has at least a four-year period before constitutionally having to face the national electorate. The next Local Government elections will be due in June, 2006, but in keeping with tradition it could
be postponed indefinitely. Parliamentary elections are not due before the last quarter of 2007. This will allow political space for the PNP to deal with any negative consequences arising from further draconian economic measures or a loss at the polls on June 19, 2003.
One Love, One Heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970's. E-mail: dktruth@hotmail.com
