D.K. Duncan THE ELECTORAL division of Braeton comes under the political spotlight this Thursday as just over 5,000 voters are eligible to vote. In the absence of a contest for the position of councillor on June 19, 2003, the PNP's George Lee defeated the JLP's Keith Hinds in the mayoral race in that division.
Table 1 shows the results of the last four elections as they relate to the Braeton Local Government division. With a voter turnout (VTO) of just under 25 per cent, the PNP won the division by 18 percentage points (58.4 per cent 40.5 per cent) in the 2003 Local Government (mayoral) elections. This is very close to the 20-point difference in October 2002 (59 per cent-39 per cent). In the 1997 and 1998 elections, the difference in the party standings were even wider. The margin was 33 percentage points in the December, 1997 General Election (64 per cent-31 per cent) while it was 41 percentage points in the 1998 Local Government elections (70 per cent-29 per cent) both in favour of the PNP.
Voter turnout (VTO) in the General Election, as the table demonstrates, was at least twice as much as in the Local.
THE ANALYSIS
The parish of St. Catherine has, in recent times, recorded the lowest VTO in elections. The Southern St. Catherine area, which includes the constituencies of S.E. St. Catherine and South St. Catherine inclusive of the Braeton division are at the lower end of VTO in the parish. Both parties will have their hands full to bring out a greater percentage of voters (over 50 per cent) than those that have participated in the recent Parliamentary elections. Between the elections of October 2002 and June 2003, the JLP increased its national support in relation to the PNP by close to five percentage points. This was in a context of a drastically reduced VTO nationally of 40 per cent in the Local compared to 58.6 per cent in the General. Twice as many PNP 2002 voters stayed at home than the 2002 JLP voters.
It would take a superhuman effort for the JLP to overcome an 18 percentage point deficit while campaigning against a background of a five increase (up to June) in support nationally. With the two traditional parties paying extra special attention to this election the statistical analysis points to a victory for the PNP.
THE NEW MUNICIPALITY
The new Portmore municipality, under its first Mayor, George Lee, will have as a major challenge the task of increasing the participation of the broad base of its citizens. This includes greater involvement in the election of public officials. It is possible that, if used creatively, the delicate balance of Councillors between the major parties may provide an incentive. At the moment, of the 11 divisions the PNP and the JLP hold five each. The outcome of the elections in the Braeton division will decide which party will control the majority.
THE PARISH
The new councillor whether it is the outgoing Councillor Owen Saunderson or his main challenger Viviene Reeves will wear two hats: one in the Portmore Council and the other in the St. Catherine Parish Council. The outcome in the latter was already decided on June 19. The JLP at that time won 23 Council divisions to the PNP's 16. This election in the Braeton division will fill out the complement of 40 councillors in the parish.
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
Even if the statistical outlook for a PNP victory is confirmed on Thursday, the results could help to answer some questions. How deep is the PNP voter disgust or apathy as exhibited on June 19? "Faced" with their backs against the wall, how effective is their much-vaunted election day machinery? Can the entire party focus on mobilising at least their high of 1,510 of the 5,000 plus voters eligible to vote? Will the historically low Southern St. Catherine turnout prevail against the organisational efforts of a revitalised JLP? Is there an active rather than a passive PNP turnoff and can the JLP tap into it? Can they poll more than their previous 2002 high of 1,005 votes? If there is a JLP upset, what is the significance for legitimacy of the present administration? Would a close result be a moral victory for the JLP?|
In politics, they say, sometimes perception is more important than reality. Braeton may be more important than we think.
One love, one heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s.
