Howard Hamilton - Horse Sense THIS WEEK we continue our journey of discovery in the handicapping of Thoroughbreds. Last week we looked at the importance of being able to analyse past performance and the value of "race reading." We also wrote about the value of class and how important it is to establish the ideal racing distance for horses. We look at more depth this week into speed, time, weight and the value of exercise performance.
Time is the most precise measurement of a horse's ability. In order to handicap a race intelligently a horse player must know which horse has superior ability.
Time is the only way to measure this ability with precision. In my opinion, it is by far the most important factor in handicapping.
The most difficult part of speed handicapping is making the initial commitment to learn it. The virtues of other aspects of handicapping are easy to understand but speed and time take diligent and time-consuming study.
Let me commend the readers of this column to ANDREW BEYER, author of "BEYER ON SPEED:" and "PICKING WINNERS" two of the most authoritarian works on speed racing.
SIMPLE CALCULATION
ANDREW BEYER is the "GURU" on the use of speed as the ultimate means of handicapping. His writings are the Horseplayers guide to handicapping.
We are all aware of the simple calculation where we use 1 length as being equivalent to 1/5 of a second. BEYER points out that we must recognise the difference in pace between horses travelling over sprint distances 5 furlongs (1000 m) to 8 furlongs (1600 m) and those covering a distance of ground. He has developed a series of charts based on the average time for all classes of horses.
With these averages, a horseplayer is able to construct a parallel-time chart so that he can compare the performances of horses that have been running at different distances. In this way the horseplayer is able to assess, more accurately than the vast majority of bettors, the real meaning of horses' time.
The serious student of speed rating takes note of the fact that, the rule of thumb calculation of 13 seconds per furlong for races from 5 furlong (1000 m), to 8 furlong (1600 m), is seriously flawed since a horse that does 6 furlong in 1.13minutes will cover an additional furlong in a much slower time than a horse who does 6 furlongs in 1.10.
While I recommend the serious handicapper to study BEYER'S speed charts there is an interesting calculation which describes quite simply the relative importance of 1/5 of a second at the different distances in horse racing.
Let me quote from BEYER: "If a horse runs six furlongs in 1.13 he has covered the distance in 73 seconds or 365 fifths of a second. One fifth of a second represents 1/365 or 0.28 per cent of his entire race. When a horse runs seven furlongs in 1:26 1/5, one-fifth of a second is 1/431, or .23 per cent, of the whole race".
SPEED-RATING SYSTEM
We now know how to weigh a fifth of a six and seven furlongs. Moving the decimal point over one place to make the figures more manageable, we know that a fifth of a second would be worth 2.8 points at six furlongs, 2.3 points at seven furlongs.
If we assign a rating of 80 to a six-furlong time of 1.13, a horse which runs in 12 4/5 earns a rating of 82.8 and a horse that runs seven furlongs in 1:26 earns a rating of 82.3".
It is quite simple when you get the hang of these calculations and, believe me, using a speed rating system will provide you with many profitable days at the race track. Exercise patience and wait for the horse that stands out. Don't expect this to happen every race day.
Horseplayers need to be patient. Buy BEYER'S book and join the group of horseplayers who find studious devotion to hard work a most rewarding activity.
I have become such a student of speed rating that I sometimes forget that there are other important functions to consider when handicapping horse.
How important is the jockey? I have always felt that jockeys usually win races because they are riding the best horses. The best jockey in the world cannot transform horse's capabilities.
ABILITY OF JOCKEYS
The ability of our jockeys varies widely and it is good to bear this in mind when making your selection.
Do not bet blindly on the best jockey in the races when your calculation shows that the speed figures don't match up.
You have a betting coup when your calculations show a top rated speed figure with a top jockey on board.
Usually you can be guided by observing if a horse has been ridden in a previous series of races by an incompetent, inexperienced, or unfashionable jockey and then gets the services of a top jockey that horse deserves some consideration but only if the speed figures are encouraging.
Next week we will have the final session on handicapping when we look at the importance of sex fillies versus colts, equipment, drugs, physical appearance, exercise gallops and money management.
Howard L. Hamilton is a former Chairman of Caymanas Track Limited and the current President of Thoroughbred Owners & Breeders Association of Jamaica. He can be contacted at howham@cwjamaica.com.
