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After Saddam - caution
published: Tuesday | December 16, 2003

THE END of the road could hardly have been more ignominious. "We got him" announced American civil administrator L. Paul Bremer of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, his jocularity betraying the mean circumstances of the Iraqi leader's final surrender.

For American troops in Iraq, the event is a big morale booster. For United States (U.S.) President George W. Bush, it will provide a huge political surge. Come Monday morning, some political pundits were going so far as to declare that Mr. Bush had now locked up next year's election.

That judgement may be a little hasty. A lot could happen between now and next year. In particular, the question of whether Saddam's capture will weaken the resistance to US occupation remains unanswered. While some Pentagon spokesmen were predicting the resistance would now decline, Mr. Bush rightly cautioned that the end remains a good distance away.

Precisely because so little is known about the resistance, it is very difficult to say with any confidence what role, if any, Saddam played in it. Only time ­ perhaps the passage of several months ­ will make it possible to answer this question with any degree of certainty.

Behind the doors of the White House, administration officials were jubilant on Sunday. But they were right to remain modest in victory when they spoke publicly. Mr. Bush, stung by his experience earlier in the year when he declared too quickly the end of major fighting in Iraq, has learnt that life ­ especially political life ­ is often more complex than it appears.

THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.

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