THE LATEST 2002 Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions (JSLC) reinforces the difficulty of discerning any clear trends in the local economy. It is a mixed bag indeed. Just months ago the government reported great strides in its frequently declared war on poverty. This view was buttressed by a World Bank Report that gave the impression that the authorities had reasons to celebrate their successes in reducing poverty. The World Bank Report said that "between 1995 and 2001 estimates of real per capita consumption from the household survey grew by 3.5 per cent per year, while real per capita consumption in the GDP accounts reportedly declined by 1.5 per cent per year; and, the bank concluded, "corroborating evidence for underestimation in the decline in poverty in the latter half of the '90s".
The latest JSLC survey that reported on 2001 a year to which the World Bank referred - suggests that the authorities' celebration of poverty reduction successes may have been somewhat premature. According to the latest report, "the incidence of poverty increased to 16.9 per cent in 2001". Poverty was said to be 'more than extreme' in the rural areas than in the Kingston Metropolitan area. PIOJ Director-General, Dr. Wesley Hughes, attributed the increase in poverty in these areas mainly to the decline in earnings from tourism arising from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S., and to the effect of flood rains.
We take a different view on this however. While acknowledging the September 11 reality, we believe that the problems concerning living standards in the rural areas largely reflect the negative impact of unplanned liberalisation especially regarding imported foods, without any corresponding programme to assist the local farming community to reposition itself. In this regard we view the current Buy Jamaica Campaign, that received the support of the Bureau of Standards last week, as a positive development with implications for local farmers and manufacturers.
Meanwhile, it is significant to note that the PIOJ Director-General has argued that "as a cost-cutting measure the PIOJ will be conducting the JSLC survey every other year instead of an annual basis. We cannot fathom the logic of this and wonder if the results were positive a similar decision would be taken. To cut back on the publication of critical data on the general living conditions, not just the poverty measurement component, goes against the grain of the concerns of any modern economy to publish data on a timely basis. This is so as should there be any warning signals of problems ahead, corrective measures can be quickly put in place.
There is no gainsaying that ultimately the war on poverty will be won when the economy returns to and stays on a self-sustaining growth path. To expect substantial improvement in poverty on any other basis is to encourage fantasising. What is worrying about this is that the current heavy debt ratios do not augur well for a serious dent on poverty.
Ironically, however, the news on the proposed US$690 million Alcoa investment in the alumina industry offers tremendous hope, reinforcing the view of an economy with a mixed bag of pluses and minuses.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
