Robert BuddanMY COLLEAGUE from Trinidad and Tobago pointed out to me that the time between the attacks of September 11, 2001 and the bombings in Spain on March 11, 2004, was 911 days.
This 911 interim could have been the signature of Al Qaeda or a 'forgery' by copycat bombers. This 911 period could hardly have been a coincidence.
Since the Spanish bombing, the ruling party in Spain has lost power. The government of Jose Maria Aznar was one of the closest to the Bush administration, comparable only to the Blair government in Britain.
Spanish voters reacted against the Government's support of the American war in Iraq, which a majority of the Spanish (and Europeans) had opposed to begin with. The Spanish felt that Aznar had exposed Spain, which already has its own internal terrorist problems with Basque terrorists, to international terrorism.
REGIME CHANGE IN CUBA
My colleague also believes, and cites Cuban diplomatic sources, that the larger significance of the removal of Aristide in Haiti, is to permit the Americans (and others) to use Haiti as a launch pad for regime change in Cuba. In fact, he believes that in 2000 (when President George W. Bush and Aristide came to power), the United States and Canada came to an understanding to remove Aristide.
For over a year now, Cuba has claimed that the U.S. has been engaged in regime change by actively and openly encouraging dissidents and engaging the U.S. ambassador in Cuba to do so.
The Government of Spain has been an active supporter of sanctions against Cuba and regime change there as well.
Since late 2003, the Castro Government has been particularly active in mobilising Cubans for the defense of the revolution.
Castro has charged that the Americans were planning an invasion and his assassination. The Americans have dismissed both charges.
But the record shows that the Americans have planned invasions of Cuba and Castro's assassination before. The record also shows that you cannot believe everything the Americans say, especially since they have declared Cuba to be part of the axis of evil.
Even as the American conservative coalition against terrorism is active, the front is being breached. The loss of Aznar is a blow against using the Spanish against Cuba.
The new socialist government of Spain will be sympathetic to Cuba. Its arrival breaches the soundness of the American coalition against Iraq and has sent waves of concern that other conservative governments might suffer a similar backlash.
Other leaders would be justified in asking if they will be next. Put another away, voters in those countries might get scared that terrorist violence will be used during election seasons to punish their governments for supporting American action in Iraq.
Already the new Government of Spain says it will pull its troops out of Iraq by the end of June. The new Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, has also already attacked Bush and Blair by saying it is wrong to just randomly bomb people and organise a war with lies.
Tony Blair's already unpopular government might fall as well. When the Conservative Party of Britain gained more local council seats than had been expected in the elections of May 2003, many felt it was in part because of Blair's association with Bush.
The war was very unpopular and like everywhere else, sharply divided people. Even Blair's left wing critic, Ken Livingston, left the labour party and ran as an independent candidate, winning as mayor of London over Blair's hand-picked labour candidate (who actually came in third).
Blair has to face the national electorate by 2006. In the U.S., the heartland of the conservative axis, the fragility of the coalition shows up as well. The Democrats have completed their primaries and John Kerry has a good lead on Bush in all the major polls. Bush himself could lose in November and what has started in Spain could come full circle by 2004-2006.
CONSEQUENCES IN THE CARIBBEAN
The conservative front has not established itself in Haiti. Aristide's supporters are fighting back and the first American casualties have been reported. The American ambassador now admits that it will take time to establish law and order. The actions of Haitian rebels on the border with the Dominican Republic has created tensions and could mushroom into a crisis between two countries that have had poor relations for 150 years. Things had only started to improve since the mid-1990s.
Supporters of the American coalition include the Dominican Republic. However, the president of the DR faces an election in May and all polls show that he is expected to lose.
The likely winner might decide to keep troops from the DR in Iraq since the DR has just been rewarded with a free trade agreement with the U.S.. But this free trade agreement keeps protections of the American market in place for certain products, including sugar (one of the DR's main industries), meat and dairy products.
Three weeks ago, Australia was also rewarded with a free trade agreement with the U.S. after the Australian government went against popular opinion to send troops to Iraq. However, the agreement is facing strong criticism in Australia precisely because of its protectionist safeguards of the U.S. market. The Australian agreement excludes sugar, largely maintains protections against beef and dairy, and gives U.S. pharmaceutical companies the right to appeal measures designed to keep the cost of medicine down.
For Australia and the DR, the reward for supporting the war against Iraq have not turned out to be as genuine as promised and this could lead to a backlash against the governments of these countries.
Another western conservative coalition is getting together in Haiti the United States, France, and Canada helped by pro-American governments like that of Chile.
Brazil has said it is willing to send troops in. A country like Brazil can play an important role in balancing American influence and being a part of the United Nations mandate and the settlement of Haitian issues. The influence of Brazil and Venezuela in hemispheric affairs is critical to stall and defeat any attempt to use Haiti against Cuba.
CARICOM has leverage here. Brazil needs CARICOM's votes on FTAA issues. It is important to use this leverage so that countries like Jamaica do not become isolated and punished for hosting Aristide. The region has important votes in the OAS and the FTAA.
Small countries like those of CARICOM have numbers and we give Brazil a small majority among the 34 FTAA countries.
Brazil and Venezuela will listen if we talk to them about safeguarding democracy and sovereignty in the region. Brazil and Venezuela are not neutral on Haiti and Cuba. Far from it, they are sympathetic to Aristide and Cuba.
The Haiti issue has already shown the potential to divide hemispheric countries. Haitian rebels have attacked the DR to free a large number of criminals who support them. Border relations are tense.
Haiti has now frozen or suspended diplomatic relations with Jamaica. Different countries in South and Central America are on different sides of the issue of terrorism.
President Bush has not only divided Americans, he has divided the hemisphere.
Haiti and Cuba established diplomatic relations in 1996 and Rene Preval, Haiti's president at the time, visited Cuba in 1998. We will see if Haiti now breaks diplomatic relations with Cuba.
ACADEMIC EMBARGO
There is another consequence of this war on terrorism. My colleagues have pointed out that a few months ago the American Treasury department issued a policy that serves to curb academic freedom.
Apparently, American academics have been instructed not to collaborate with academics from the so-called axis of evil Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Sudan. This war on terror is now being waged on academic freedom. I hope Jamaica's anti-terrorism legislation will make it explicit that freedom of expression must be preserved.
Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona. E-mail:
Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm
