D.K. DuncanThe three top contenders for the post of the next Prime Minister of Jamaica provided a study in contrasts during the opening of the budget debate last Thursday.
Seated together in their assigned seats in Parliament, the television cameras had no difficulty focusing on Portia Simpson Miller, Omar Davies and Peter Philips. Prime Minister P.J. Patterson got his share of the spotlight as he completed the quartet of leaders in the main section of the Government's front bench in Gordon House.
PORTIA
Commanding centrestage was the Finance Minister as he made his eleventh consecutive budget presentation in Parliament. Seated to his right was the leading contender in national polls for the Prime Minister's job. She had during the past week gained widescale public support for abstaining on an Opposition motion in the Standing Finance Committee calling for more funds for the Fire Services located in her Ministry.
On the other hand, she had incurred the displeasure of some of her ministerial colleagues for abandoning the principle of collective responsibility arising from the process of collective decision-making. If the Finance Minister felt aggrieved, there was no sign of this in his presentation. The TV cameras however showed a subdued Portia applauding on cue, while a confident Omar quieted his sternest critics.
PETER
Apart from moving the customary motion to allow Omar enough time to complete his presentation, the Leader of the House Peter Phillips appeared distracted and even less animated than Portia. The absence of adequate funding to construct or repair dilapidated police stations would not have been sufficient for the apparent distraction. The continuing high levels of homicides might.
The increasing number of criminal charges being laid against police officers perceived to have used extreme measures could cause some disquiet. The recent public opinion polls which have him behind Portia would not help. Maybe more importantly, the body language between himself and the Prime Minister seated beside him was by, TV standards, not positive.
P.J.
The P.M. seemed reflective. He appeared to be pondering the future. Although seated in Parliament, he might have noticed like some Television viewers that the presentation by his Finance Minister had Prime Ministerial qualities. Could the economy be turned around in time to coincide with his own departure? Could the various investments pending, which were being cleverly packaged by Omar in his speech, bear fruit in time? Could Omar, now running a distant third in the public opinion polls, benefit from a turnaround to become a realistic contender for his post? Barring the deleterious effects to the country of an energy crisis or any significant act of God - could his departure coincide with a situation where he could credibly lay claim to having risen to the challenge of his mentor Norman Manley? Could he accomplish the mission of "reconstructing the social and economic society and life of Jamaica"?
OMAR
Aspects of P.J.'s legacy as well as the potential for a fifth consecutive term for the Peoples' National Party are inextricably linked to the fortunes of the economy and by extension the leadership of the Finance Minister in that area.
Up to the 2002 budget Omar Davies had the quiet respect of a wide cross section of Jamaicans. He lost much of this political capital between November 2002 and early 2004. Like the escape artist Houdini he seems to have extricated himself from near political oblivion. This despite the fact that in 2002 he projected a fiscal deficit by 2004/5 of +0.1%. His present target is a distant -3 to -4%. It was the Minister in 2002 who had elevated this particular macro-economic indicator in the public consciousness.
With an MOU in place, the psychology of the Partners for Progress embedded and the prospects of real investments, the Minister is likely to proceed with caution - economically and politically.
A subdued Portia, a distracted Peter and a reflective P.J. provided an ideal television background against which the confident Finance Minister could star. One Love, One Heart.
A Dental Surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet Minister and General Secretary in the PNP Administration of the 1970's.
