John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUSTWO DAYS early, to pre-empt expected attacks by anti-American insurgents, the U.S. occupation authority handed sovereignty to the appointed interim administration of Iraq.
In principle, Iraq is once again a country with an independent government. In practice, that independence is severely constrained. The interim administration has nominal control over the country's territory, but real control over little. With civil war continuing, and the security forces of Iraq rebuilding but slowly, the government will have to rely on American-led coalition forces to restore its control.
NO COMMAND
Those forces remain in Iraq only with the consent of the Iraqi administration. Not surprisingly, it has said it does not want them to go, despite their rising unpopularity among many Iraqis. Yet the government has no command over those forces. Unable to rely on their own soldiers, government ministers travel only under US escort. The symbolism of this is not lost on opponents of the regime.
The new government's finances are equally constrained. On the one hand, it will enjoy full control over the country's lucrative oil industry, which has finally returned to pre-war levels of output. But these revenues will suffice only to pay the bills for the day-to-day running of the government.
Iraq, however, is in a shambles, decimated by a decade of sanctions, war and now a spreading insurgency that has taken to targeting infrastructure. The government will be unable to sustain itself until it rebuilds the economy, but it lacks the resources to do this. Having committed generous funds to rebuilding Iraq, the US is insisting on controlling the purse strings. This will further turn the Iraqi administration into a policy-taker, dependent on U.S. largesse, efficiency and planning for its own future well-being.
At present, that is a lot to ask for. Reconstruction has been slow, hampered by bureaucratic inefficiency and the challenges of the insurgency. Ordinary Iraqis are growing restive at the slow pace of rebuilding, which among other things has left them sweltering in the hot summer nights without air conditioning. If the pace does not pick up soon, anger will turn on the new government. That might take the heat off the Americans. But it will do little to facilitate what the Americans hope will be a transition to a stable and democratic Iraq, the stated goal of the Bush administration.
In truth, the White House has had to scale back its expectations for Iraq. We are hearing less talk about democracy now, seeing as the US is concerned with just restoring stability. With unemployment estimated at around fifty per cent, there is no shortage of disgruntled and idle young men who can be attracted to the insurgents cause.
COSMETIC CHANGE
When all is said and done, therefore, if not a puppet government, this is one on a very tight leash. Given the uncertain situation, it has already begun to hint that elections scheduled for next January may need to be postponed. While nominally sovereign, Iraq remains very much under de facto American occupation. The cosmetic change may suffice to help George W. Bush's re-election prospects. But if the new Iraqi government is unable to impose itself quickly on Iraq, before long the US may find itself dragged back in.
John Rapley is a Senior
Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona
campus.
