John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUSTHE POLITICAL temperature in Israel has been rising of late. As Ariel Sharon tries to put together a workable coalition to press ahead with his proposed withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the International Court of Justice has ruled the barrier he is building to separate Israel from its occupied territories is illegal. Further indicating Israels diplomatic isolation over this issue, the United Nations General Assembly voted this week to approve the Courts ruling. Israel, needless to say, will disregard both actions. Provided he has United States backing - he does - Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will continue with the barrier. And provided he can assemble a coalition to replace his collapsing government, he will withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
Mind you, the second of those two 'provideds' is a big one. While polls indicate that most Israelis support the proposed withdrawal, the parliamentarians needed to back his government are a fractious lot. Even those who can agree on the virtue of a withdrawal from Palestinian land often find the prospect of working alongside one another unpalatable.
HEATING UP
In the meantime, things on the ground in the Gaza Strip are heating up. In principle, the Israeli withdrawal from the thin strip of land on its western border, which it occupied in the 1967 war, should cede power to the Government of Yasser Arafat. However, Arafat's offices are in the West Bank, and his freedom of movement is constrained.
Within the Gaza Strip, where poverty is worse than in the West Bank, Arafat's grip is less than complete. The chief rival to his Fatah movement, Hamas, has sunk particularly deep roots there. Its network of social services has plugged the gap left by an imploding state.
Moreover, within Fatah itself, factions are jockeying for position ahead of the withdrawal. Should Sharon succeed in pulling out, Israel will in effect leave behind a vacuum. Filling that vacuum is what various factions are now trying to do, by claiming ground ahead of the transfer.
While Yasser Arafat remains popular among Palestinians, he has his opponents, both at home and, especially, in the Palestinian diaspora. Increasingly, he is seen as an ineffectual leader who has failed to capitalise on many opportunities to improve life for his people. He is also criticised by democrats for his refusal to cede much power to his own government. The attempted resignation of his Prime Minister this week, apparently over Arafat's refusal to grant him authority on security matters, indicates the sorts of pressures that are building.
Gaza is heavily armed, and various local militias have emerged. While they were busy fighting the common Israeli foe, they buried their differences. Suddenly, though, the landscape has changed. Unhappy that Mr. Arafat has tried to retain the security forces as a personal domain, some of these armed groups are now turning on those same forces. Even within the official security forces, there are signs that some officers are trying to take local command.
Hence the increasing disarray we are seeing in Palestine of late. While the West Bank seethes over the construction of the security barrier, the Gaza Strip risks descending into a Lebanon-style civil war over turf.
GAZA LAWLESSNESS
For his part, Yasser Arafat blames the Gaza lawlessness on the Israeli army's destruction of the infrastructure of his nascent state. The complaint is reasonable: Ariel Sharon has arguably done all he can to frustrate the transfer of sovereignty in Palestine. Nevertheless, Mr. Arafat must take his share of blame for his people's lot.
Palestinians, especially those from the West Bank, are among the most educated citizens of the Arab world. Abroad, they have succeeded in all walks of life, from the professions to academe to business. But to judge from the sort of people with whom Mr. Arafat surrounds himself, one would be forgiven for reaching a different conclusion. Equally, Palestine's democrats have been dismayed by the heavy hand Mr. Arafat wields when governing. At times, he seems to regard Palestine as his personal kingdom.
This reluctance to delegate power effectively may be coming home to haunt Mr. Arafat in the Gaza Strip. After decades of struggling for independence, it would be a tragedy if Palestinians first taste of freedom comes in the form of anarchy.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona campus.
