THE JAMAICA Labour Party (JLP) has recorded a two per cent lead in popular support over the governing People's National Party (PNP). But, with a plus or minus three per cent margin of error in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Don Anderson poll, the JLP and PNP have registered a virtual dead-heat.
According to the poll, 26.6 per cent of those interviewed said they would support a JLP without incumbent Opposition Leader Edward Seaga at the helm. Another 24.4 per cent said they would vote for a PNP without current Prime Minister P.J. Patterson spearheading its campaign.
CONSISTENT
"Support for the JLP is consistent across the demographic groups with the exception of persons in the upper socio-economic group and amongst persons in the middle income groups," the pollster said in his analysis. "Apart from these groups and older persons 55-plus, the JLP leads the PNP in every category."
He added that the PNP's support was strongest amongst persons in the upper income group with 25 per cent compared to the JLP's 19 per cent.
The poll was conducted by Mr. Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd. over the period July 6 to 20. It involved interviews with 1,200 persons islandwide, aged 18 years and older, and offered a nationally representative sample conveying the views of different demographic units of gender, age and social class in line with their known relative importance within the population.
Mr. Anderson noted that one of the important issues that have helped to condition the minds of voters in the past has been the subject of the leadership of each party. It is currently unclear who will be leading the two parties when the next general election, constitutionally due by 2007, is called, as both Mr. Patterson and Mr. Seaga have indicated that they would not be contending.
TIMELINE
Mr. Patterson, though maintaining that he will not contest another election, has yet to give a definitive timeline for his departure. But Mr. Seaga announced just last month that he will be demitting office at his party's annual conference in November. The two party leaders have gone head-to-head in three election campaigns over 11 years, with Mr. Patterson winning each time.
"No one knows at this stage who the respective leaders will be and the extent to which the new leaders will stamp their authority on the election campaigns," Mr. Anderson emphasised.
But according to the poll, 45 per cent of those in favour of the PNP said they would vote for the current governing party primarily because they have traditionally given it their support. On the flip side, 34.8 per cent of those in favour of the JLP said they would vote because they are traditional supporters of that party.
Almost 17 per cent of the PNP supporters said they were in favour of the governing party because they consider it more organised, while 16 per cent of the JLP's supporters said that they were most moved by the need for a change.
According to the poll, 25.7 per cent of persons said they would not vote while another 23.3 per cent said they were unsure who they would vote for when the elections are called. But Mr. Anderson was quick to note that such positions were not unusual at a time when there is no clear date as to when the elections are to be held.
