Dan RatherNEW YORK CITY:
THE SCRIPT for John Kerry's Democratic Convention was clear: a jab against President Bush here, a pointed critique there... but overall and in the main, set forth let's say it all together now, folks 'a positive message'. Common sense and probably reams of internal polling data suggested that Sen. Kerry had to lay out his vision for America at the outset of his campaign. And, it seems, Team Bush couldn't have been happier.
History has shown that presidential elections in which an incumbent is running for re-election are essentially referendums on that incumbent's first term. This election year, with the 'Anybody But Bush' attitude that Democratic partisans exhibited during the primary season, this rule of thumb seems as true as ever. The work that a challenger has cut out for him is, first, to help along negative opinion of the incumbent's first four years and, second, to establish himself as a feasible electoral alternative.
Team Kerry, perhaps thinking that the first part had been taken care of by Howard Dean in the primaries, chose to use the convention to highlight the second part, trying to establish in voters' minds that he could lead the nation in a time of war that was what all the saluting and swift-boating was all about. Maybe the Kerry strategy was necessary, but it gave Bush and his partisans an opening to change the subject from his own record as president to John Kerry's record as senator and even as Vietnam veteran.
NOMINATION
But won't the Republican Convention, arriving at last to teeming New York, change all that? Won't President Bush have to stand on the stage at Madison Square Garden and accept his party's nomination on the basis of what his administration has and has not accomplished since taking office? On Thursday night, we can expect President Bush to dwell on those parts of his record where polling shows he has an edge over Kerry, especially the war on terrorism. But on the issues where Kerry has the advantage the economy, health care an incumbent such as Bush has a unique tool at his disposal for changing the subject: the State of the Union address.
Yes, the State of the Union is traditionally delivered in January, before a joint session of Congress. But in election years, incumbents can offer a special convention version tailor-made for rolling out new policy initiatives, optimistic scenarios and all the other good things that will happen if only they are sent back to the White House for another term... all while dealing a few well-aimed blocks at a challenger's lines of attack. If President Bush follows this strategy and there are indications that he might Sen. Kerry will be drawn into a debate about the president's vision for the next four years, rather than his record on the past four. So it would become challenger Kerry's proposals versus incumbent Bush's proposals... which would get the Democrats further from the road the book says they need to follow for Kerry to win: a referendum on the Bush presidency leading to a negative verdict from American voters.
President Bush has endured some hard stumbles on the way to his party's nomination, with some months as bad as a sitting president can have. But as he heads into New York for the Republican Convention, President Bush is still neck-and-neck with his challenger, and he's armed with what might be the most powerful political weapon one can wield: incumbency. Never count a competitor out. Especially if he's the sitting president.
Dan Rather is a television broadcaster.
