By D.K. Duncan

OWING TO the serious threat posed by the approaching Hurricane Ivan, one major change in the political diary of events was the postponement of the critical 66th annual conference of the People's National Party (PNP). In the aftermath of the hurricane questions have also been raised about a possible postponement of the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) conference.

THE JLP

Scheduled for early November 2004, the eight weeks between the advent of the hurricane and the JLP conference should be enough time for sufficient recovery. The party machinery should be more than capable of mobilising the close to 4,500 delegates anticipated for the main if not the only task of the conference - electing a new leader. If the circumstances continue to be difficult, the session of the conference open to the public could be postponed to a later date. If the JLP is to settle down sufficiently to prepare itself to be an alternative government, it needs all the time it can get. There will be enough challenges associated with the naming of an Opposition Leader in Parliament to assist in the task of building a credible alternative.

This is assuming that the clear front-runner for the post of JLP Leader ­ Bruce Golding ­ prevails at the conference. Any delay in resolving the leadership question in the JLP, outside of another devastating hurricane, cannot be in the interest of the party or the country. The Central Executive of the Party has obviously accepted this responsibility and has decided to go ahead with the scheduled conference and the election of a Leader.

THE PNP

In the absence of the PNP's September conference, Hurricane Ivan's intervention allows the JLP to get a clear run leading up to their own conference. Time alone will tell whether this will be to the advantage of one party over the other. Like it did after Gilbert's intervention in 1988, the PNP had no choice but to postpone its conference. It would have provided the Party President P.J. Patterson with a platform to set the political agenda for the last quarter of 2004. Critically it would have allowed for a specific timetable for the PNP leadership transition process to be outlined.

The absence of this timetable can continue to prove disabling to the several contenders for the position of Party President and Jamaica's next Prime Minister.

The need for the government to focus all its energies on the reconstruction process may now make it undesirable for the PNP President to make any leadership-related announcements before the postponed conference is held in January 2005. Four of the six contenders for the leadership post are Cabinet Ministers. The public will be monitoring their performances closely over this period.

The Prime Minister himself has stepped confidently into the reconstruction process. Beginning with obviously careful preparation for disaster, he followed up with the declaration of a state of public emergency. The exquisite timing gave the security forces the confidence it needed to deal with matters clearly anticipated from prior intelligence.

Obviously, bearing in mind the fiasco associated with the distribution of zinc in 1988 through 1989 the Prime Minister set up a non-partisan Office of National Reconstruction (ONR). The choice of Danville Walker as its Chief Executive Officer has already been given overwhelming support by the public as well as the role to be played by former Police Commissioner Trevor MacMillan, among others. The opportunity to stifle aspects of political tribalism in this period has been grasped.

Facing severe unforeseen challenges to his economic targets, Finance Minister Omar Davies has a full plate. His leadership ambition hangs on how people perceive the delicate balance between restraint and compassion. Local Government Minister Portia Simpson continues to be the front-runner while Security Minister Peter Phillips ­ the main contender ­ confronts an acute crime problem now going chronic.

'Ivan' may yet have the potential not only to change political diaries, but to influence the choice of political leaders. One love, one heart.

A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet Minister and general secretary of the PNP administration of the 1970s.