D.K. Duncan THE PEOPLE and the Government of Jamaica need to literally buy some time if the battle for social and economic prosperity is to be won in the medium term. In the short term, the assumption is that new levels of significant local and foreign direct investments will materialise. A further assumption is that the economic growth expected to arise from these investments will be accompanied by meaningful job opportunities.
A major challenge therefore is how to survive the short term of two to three years in face of the chronic problem of crime and violence, without losing the expected momentum in the economy. An additional challenge is the response of the political system in light of the fact that this period coincides with the election of a new Leader of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), as well as the ruling Peoples' National Party (PNP). This is compounded by the prospect of parliamentary elections during or just before the end of this projected short term period.
UNDEREMPLOYMENT
Out of a population of approximately 2.7 million people, Jamaica has a labour force of just over 1.1 million. Of this number, approximately 500,000 persons are deemed to be underemployed. Within this half a million, close to 175,000 persons are unemployed. Women account for 110,000, with the remaining 65,000 being male. The figure of 15 per cent unemployed has been relatively constant over the last 15 years. While representing an improvement over the 22.5 per cent in 1972, the 26.8 per cent in 1980 and the 18.9 per cent in 1988, the continuing consistent high levels of unemployment, and certainly those of underemployment, facilitates the opening up of space for crime and violence to flourish.
MURDER RATE
The annual homicide rate of 232 in 1973, which was considered alarming when the Gun Court and Suppression of Crime Act legislations were enacted in 1974, rose to 351 in 1979, ballooning to 889 in 1980. Dropping to just over 400 per year during the 1980s, it ended the decade at 439. The murder rate has since climbed steadily from 542 in 1990 to 1,038 in 1997. It is now at a record high this year of close to 1200. Whatever the root causes, the situation is not only unacceptable but untenable.
Apart from the five years from 1986 to 1990 where figures for economic growth were 3.0 per cent, 7.1 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 6.8 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively, the country has not seen three per cent growth over the last three decades. From all indications, we are once again on the verge of resuming meaningful growth. Jamaica's unemployment rate, its homicide rate and sluggish economic growth cannot be allowed to continue to feed on each other.
INVESTMENTS
With the real possibilities of increased investments, we need to buy the time necessary for them to take root. Tourism, the lead sector of the economy, is demonstrating this possibility. Our mainstays, Super Clubs, Sandals, Round Hill, Half Moon, Tryall, the Jamaica Pegasus and the Hilton, supported by our smaller hotels, have laid a solid basis. New support from the Ritz Carlton followed by the Spanish chains Riu, Ibero Star and Grupo Pinero sustain the hope. Developments like Harmony Cove and the possibility of massive investments with jobs through casino gaming raise the level of hope. Increased activity and investments in the bauxite and alumina industry and elsewhere signals more possibilities.
In the meantime however, hopelessness abounds among the unemployed and underemployed. Fatalism is the order of the day in our inner cities. Cynicism, if allowed to go unchecked, stands ready to be replaced by anarchy. Operation Kingfish has its place in the fight against certain manifestations of crime and violence. However, nothing short of a massive economic assault on the hopelessness and cynicism born out of being chronically unemployed and underemployed over decades will suffice. With party leadership contests in the offing and General Elections on the horizon, it will take leadership of a special kind at all levels of the society to 'buy the time' necessary to win the battle for economic prosperity. One love, one heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet minister and general secretary in the PNP administration of the 1970s.
