D. K. Duncan, Contributor
NATIONAL SECURITY Minister Peter Phillips has become the second member of the People's National Party (PNP) to formally launch a campaign as a candidate for the post of party president.
This follows a 'soft launch' by Finance Minister Omar Davies in December 2004. It also follows the information earlier this month from the party's General Secretary Burchell Whiteman that the prime minister would be demitting the office of party president this year.
PNP President P.J. Patterson, up to the time of this revelation, made it clear that he will not be leading the party into the next general elections. Saturday's business session of the postponed 66th Annual Conference of the PNP could provide more information and further details of the leadership transition process.
CANDIDATES
It has been public knowledge that there are at least six persons who have at one time or another expressed their interest in succeeding P. J. Patterson when he retires. Apart from the chairman of Region 111 Omar Davies and Vice President Phillips who have formally launched, the others are Local Government Minister and Vice President Portia Simpson Miller, Vice President Karl Blythe, Public Utilities Minister and party chairman Robert Pickersgill as well as former Region 111 chairman Paul Burke.
All candidates are in the preparatory stages of campaigning. It is of some significance that after 15 consecutive years in office so many persons are actively campaigning to lead the PNP into the next elections. The basis of such interest must include some confidence in the immediate future making a fifth consecutive term a real possibility, as well as a negative reading of the state of the opposition Jamaica Labour Party.
RUN-OFF
Some political observers speculate that such a large and competitive field is a recipe for divisiveness and public conflict. The two leadership contests in the PNP's history had only two contestants. In 1969, Michael Manley defeated Vivian Blake while the party was out of office. In 1992, P.J. Patterson defeated Portia Simpson Miller while the party formed the Government. At this time all six candidates are holding to indivi-dual campaigns. This does not rule out alliances in the future.
One of the mechanisms the party will be examining on Saturday is the possibility of a run-off. This means that if all six candidates persist in contesting the elections, the first-past-the-post system would not apply. Rather the top two or three candidates with the most votes would participate in another vote until it is clear that a significant majority has voted for a new leader.
DIRECT ELECTIONS
Another issue before the conference is the issue of 'the direct participation of all registered and financial members to participate in the selection of the president of the People's National Party'.
At the 2003 conference, the party amended its constitution to allow for this approach for the selection of candidates for local government and general elections. This would significantly increase the voters lists from approximately 3,000 to close to 40,000 delegates. At present, party groups are allowed two voting delegates for each recognised group. In the proposed change, all group members, up to a maximum of 30 members per group, would be a voter.
Unless Saturday's business session changes the rules, the existing standing orders provide that 'voting at any special party conference shall be on the same basis as that on which voting took place at the preceding Annual Conference'.
In 1969 and in 1992 the new party leader was chosen at a special conference convened for that purpose. This means that if P.J. Patterson leaves before September 2005, the delegates' list for this Saturday's conference will be the one used for any leadership selection conference held before then.
The mood, behaviour and decisions taken on Saturday could therefore be very clear indicators of who the next prime minister of Jamaica will be.
The candidates who will formally nominate when the dates for a nomination period is set will take their cue from the rules of engagement agreed on beginning this Saturday. One love, one heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet minister and general secretary in the PNP's administration of the 1970s.
