John Rapley
LAST WEEK, North Korea stunned the world by announcing that it had developed a nuclear bomb. It was thus pulling out of six-nation talks aimed at disarming it.
The announcement caught the world and Washington off guard. As recently as the United States election campaign, President George W. Bush had been boasting that diplomacy was putting effective pressure on North Korea, and would prevent the 'hermit kingdom' from becoming a nuclear power.
Although Mr. Bush has labelled North Korea a member of the 'axis of evil', he has had to soften his tone and shift towards diplomacy in dealing with one of the world's few remaining communist states. This is because his government's heavy commitment to Iraq, and the vulnerability to a nuclear attack of U.S. soldiers stationed in South Korea, have put the U.S. in a relatively weak position for now. Hence, despite his criticism of the soft line his allies took against Iraq, Mr. Bush has had to take just that sort of approach with North Korea. He has joined with South Korea, Japan, China and Russia to engage in talks designed to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear programme.
It may be, of course, that the North Koreans are just bluffing. It would not be the first time they did this. They often play high-stakes poker to gain increased leverage in future negotiations. Indeed, the South Korean Government this week pointed out that this is the 10th time in two years that Pyongyang has announced it had nuclear weapons. And it is still not entirely clear that it does.
BUILDING A BOMB
It does seem evident that North Korea has been working on building a bomb. But it may not yet have a workable device. And even if it does, it is not at all certain that the country has the delivery system (e.g. a missile) which would make the bomb a real threat to the country's neighbours.
In light of these facts, North Korea's neighbours, and the United States, have not responded to this recent threat with alarm. Nevertheless, they are concerned, as they have to be.
This is because North Korea's extreme insularity makes it all but impossible to discern the intentions of its leaders. Indeed, it is not always certain who is making the decisions in Pyongyang. The country's leader, Kim Jong Il, has not been seen in public for many months, leading some to speculate that he may be losing his grip. There have been reports of splits between factions in the ruling family, and of possible coup-plotting in the military.
The country is potentially a tinderbox waiting to burst into flames. By all accounts, the economy is collapsing, and social discontent, while repressed, is mounting. Visitors' reports suggest a country that is falling apart.
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
That is why some neighbours, like South Korea, are reluctant to put too much pressure on the North. They fear that economic sanctions could lead to an outright collapse of their northern neighbour, resulting in a massive flow of refugees into China and South Korea.
Hardliners in Washington are reported to be eager to approach the United Nations to get approval for a regime of sanctions. So far, though, that has not happened. But Japan is pressing ahead with its own policy of economic pressure. As of next month, it will no longer allow North Korean ships that do not carry insurance to dock in Japanese ports. Since hardly any North Korean ships carry such insurance, Japan is effectively imposing a blockade on the eastern part of the country.
North Korea exports seafood to Japan, and imports used goods. Losing this lifeline will be painful. Japan, though, is undeterred. Not only is the country within likely reach of North Korean missiles. Japan is also angry with her neighbour over some cases of Japanese citizens kidnapped and taken to North Korea, where they were forced to teach the Japanese language to spies. Tokyo is coming under popular pressure to take a hard line.
Therefore, the situation is potentially very dangerous. However, for now, we will probably be treated to some more bluster and back-room diplomacy, as U.S. diplomats shuttle around the capitals of the region trying to find a consensus.
John Rapley is a senior
lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
