None of these achievements should be dismissed as a mere fluke.

Take the case of the Standard and Poor's improved rating. This came at a time when there was uncertainty in emerging markets.

Moreover, with the country burdened by a heavy debt to GDP ratio (an average of 150 per cent) and government's commitment to reach its fiscal deficit target, even with the impact of the hurricane, the authorities must be commended for keeping their eyes on the ball regarding management of the economy and securing an upgraded rating by Standard and Poor's.

Additionally, the initial burst in the stock market index in the first two weeks of this year only served to provide additional signals that the authorities were making the right moves.

RAIN CLOUDS LURKING

But even as there was increasing excitement about the possibilities of expansion in the economy, triggered mainly by expected investment inflows in the tourist sector, there were also fears that rain clouds lurked in the background.

For one thing, there were concerns that inflation would raise its ugly head again especially given a negative lag impact associated with the destruction that had occurred in domestic agriculture.

A contributory factor to the inflation worry was the increase in international oil prices. Just last week, oil prices pushed past the US$53 per barrel. It is true that the inflation figure for this fiscal year has been adjusted down to the 10.8 to 11 per cent range.

Were this target to be attained, the central bank argued that this would be a one per cent point deviation from the original target. Meanwhile, figures just released for January show that there was no increase in the price level.

However, it is noteworthy that concerns about inflation are also linked to an apparent unease in the labour relations climate. This has caused jitters relating to the sustainability of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between the government and trade unions.

Labour problems in the sugar industry, Air Jamaica and the failure of the government to resolve the wage dispute with the Police Federation are reflective of these concerns.

Then there are issues relating to the macro-economic framework raised in the last International Monetary Fund (IMF) report.

While complementing the authorities on their programme of consolidating the stabilisation gains they achieved following the near crisis of early 2003, the IMF raised concerns that:

The authorities will not fully realise their objectives under their macro-economic programme for fiscal year 2004/5

Balancing the budget in fiscal year 2005/6 poses a greater challenge as it requires GDP growth in the two to three per cent range higher than was initially programmed (that of 1.7 per cent)

The room for manoeuvre in monetary and exchange rate policy remains constrained by the debt overhang.

To remedy these concerns, the IMF proposed increased tax measures that would have a negative impact on the most vulnerable income groups.

In addition to these issues raised by the IMF, there is the ongoing worrying issue of the extent of off-budget items and the likely impact they will ultimately have on the Budget when they are eventually brought to book.

Opposition Spokesman on Finance, Audley Shaw, recently pointed out that the Finance Ministry made in excess of $11 billion provision for contingencies relating to off-budget items. Arriving at an accurate figure for off-budget items is obviously critical in any attempt to attain the balanced budget targeted for the next fiscal budget year.

AIR JAMAICA DEBT

In this regard, it goes without saying that the Air Jamaica debt figures that appear to be a moving target are of particular concern. So far, government continues to resile from calls for a public enquiry into what occurred at Air Jamaica under private ownership to prevent any such future recurrence.

But given the extent of government indebtedness, its assumption of any debt write-off for the airline definitely spells more belt-tightening for an economy that is already choking for survival by excessive debt.

Of course, not to be forgotten is the crime problem that not only generates an atmosphere of insecurity with implications for production but security costs continue to figure highly in total production costs of firms that are already stretched with expensive utility rates.

Allied to this, is the ongoing problem regarding the inadequate infrastructure of the social services such as health and education. Of particular concern is the absence of a proper fire service and the additional costs that these areas are imposing on the business sector and society generally.

Yet another worrying development is the general social disorder that is reflected in frequent social protests and a general boorishness on the roads and an absence of sufficient civil social relations.

The foregoing demonstrates that there continues to be a disjuncture between achievements in the broader economy and what individuals are experiencing at a micro level, especially in the lack of jobs.

MORE THAN JUST AN APPEAL

Given the severity of the debt problem, the government faces a steep task in sticking to its macro-economic targets, while stimulating job growth and maintaining the country's social infrastructure, in a manner that would have an impact on the living standards of the majority of the population that feel dispossessed.

More frequent reports of government's inability to meet its financing requirements regarding utility bills for the police and the prison service show how increasingly tenuous this balancing act has become.

The drought being experienced in most parishes is already jeopardising the government's growth forecast given the importance of domestic agriculture to self-sustaining growth.

True, there are some encouraging signs for the economy, namely the report of the Matalon Committee and the attendant public discussion of the proposed tax measures.

There are also attempts to initiate changes in the Jamaica Constabulary Force and the employment of overseas consultants to improve its forensic capability as well as incipient conciliatory discussions between the government and opposition on the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) issue ­ some glimmers of hope.

However, there is no gainsaying that the challenge that requires speedy resolution is how to remove that chasm between the potential and growth in the official economy and what is being experienced on the ground. The solution to this issue requires more than just an appeal for more time.