Robert Hart, Staff Reporter
THE GOVERNING People's National Party (PNP) has turned the tide and gained a clear advantage in the race to lead the nation after the next general election, according to a recent survey.
In the latest Gleaner Company-commissioned Don Anderson poll, 32.4 per cent of all persons interviewed said they would vote for the PNP when national elections are called.
"This is some 7.9 per cent more than those who say that they will vote for the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)," Anderson said, in presenting the results of the survey conducted between February 3 and 11.
The poll, conducted by Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd., involved interviews with 1,000 persons, aged 18 years and over in all parishes.
With 24.5 per cent saying they would vote for the JLP, the PNP's lead is outside the margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
The results mark a substantial change from a similar poll last July which had the JLP leading by a slim 2.1 per cent.
That JLP lead had apparently been fuelled by the announcement just days earlier that then-party leader Edward Seaga planned to resign in November.
30-YEAR TENURE
His resignation would end a 30-year grip on party power, and saw him joining PNP president and Prime Minister, P.J. Patterson, in declaring that he would not be a contender in the next general election due by 2007.
However, the JLP was subsequently thrown into turmoil during a bitter leadership race between party chairman Bruce Golding and Pearnel Charles.
The fight for leadership climaxed with a court battle stalling the JLP's November conference and setting back Mr. Golding's ascendancy to the coveted post until just last month.
According to the latest poll, the JLP has seen a 2.1 per cent dip in popular support since the July survey.
"The PNP support grew by eight per cent over the same period, suggesting that persons who have started to make up their minds have all decided they would support the PNP, but also that people are making up their minds earlier than normal," Anderson said.
According to the poll, the PNP primarily garnered support from older persons, 35 years and over, and from the upper and middle income groups. From a parish perspective, the areas that stood out were Trelawny, St. Ann, Kingston, Hanover, St. Mary and St. Thomas.
Meanwhile, the JLP's support came mainly from younger persons, aged 18 to 24, the low income grouping, and the parishes of St. Elizabeth, Clarendon, Hanover, St. Mary and Portland.
A MAJOR FACTOR
Anderson noted that the 'undecideds' and 'reluctants' have always been a major factor in polls leading up to elections, and that their number remains high at 41 per cent.
In July, the number of persons who were undecided or would not vote for either party sat at 49 per cent.
In the latest poll, those who were undecided were largely older persons, aged 55 and over, as well as individuals in St. Catherine, Manchester, Westmoreland, St. Thomas and Clarendon.
