John Rapley
MONTEZUMA HAD his revenge. So now, it seems, has Jean Chretien.
The former prime minister of Canada was bumped rather unceremoniously from his throne by his finance minister, Paul Martin, back in 2003. Though planning to retire for some time, Chretien was pushed out by Mr. Martin when the latter pulled the party's delegates out from under him.
But when Mr. Martin took the country to the polls last year, voters turned against his ruling Liberal Party. While it won the most seats in the election, the party was reduced to a minority in the House of Commons. This compelled it to rely on the support of opposition parties.
Now, the government faces collapse. The cause, it appears, is a nasty legacy left for Mr. Martin by the government of his former boss.
Ten years ago, voters in Canada's predominantly French-speaking province, Quebec, narrowly defeated a referendum motion on independence. But the margin of victory was so thin, that it shook the country's federal establishment. The Chretien government, in office since 1993, raced into action. It initiated a series of legislative changes and court cases designed to make it harder for Quebec separatists to hold a successful referendum in the future.
FEDERALISM IN QUEBEC
Then, to try and restore the image of federalism in Quebec, the government instituted a sponsorship scheme. Public events were to be set up, with Ottawa's sponsorship, in order to raise the profile of the federal government in Quebec. It was old-time patronage, something the Liberals have excelled at ever since they started their long tenure as the country's "natural governing party" in 1896.
Unfortunately, it now appears the Liberals were engaged in something else they have a long history of, especially in Quebec: corruption and kickbacks. It came to light that many of the contracts went to party friends, who delivered little in return for the payments, other than generous contributions to the coffers of the Liberal Party. One promoter, having held a successful event at Montreal's Olympic Stadium, appears to have photocopied the invoice several times and substituted the names of other cities to maximise his returns. Quebec, it turned out, had a whole network of Olympic Stadiums that nobody knew about.
You might admire the savvy of such enterprising souls, but the people of Quebec were unimpressed. Polls indicate that many of the province's voters, including federalists, are so dismayed at what they see as a cheap attempt to buy them off, that they would now consider voting for independence.
The disgust extends across the country. Support for the Liberals has dropped so precipitously that the opposition Conservatives are now pondering a vote of no-confidence. The government, having established a commission to investigate the scandal, is asking for it to be given time to report. As soon as that happens, promises Prime Minister Martin, Canada will go to the polls, early next year.
AN UNHOLY ALLIANCE
But the Tories, smelling blood, seem unlikely to be put off. To buy time, therefore, Mr. Martin has had to win over the smaller, left-leaning New Democratic Party. In return for some concessions in his government's recent budget more social spending and fewer corporate tax-cuts Mr. Martin has secured a pledge from the NDP not to back a vote of no-confidence. That means the Conservatives will need to gain the support of the separatist Bloc Quebecois if they are to topple the government.
That would make for an unholy alliance English-speaking conservatives with social-democratic and French-speaking nationalists. But it would not be unusual for Canada. The two factions have united before, and in one respect, they speak the same language: both oppose the historic Liberal tendency to centralise power in Ottawa.
For their part, the Liberals are raising an alarmist cry. They are saying that if they fall, they will be replaced by a Conservative government with no Quebec presence. This, they say, will strengthen the hands of Quebec's separatists, paving the way for a fresh referendum.
However, it is not clear that their scare-tactics, which have worked before, will do so again. A more decentralised federation, which is what the Tories would like, would probably allay the concerns of most Quebecois. But whether that bodes well for the country, let alone the Liberal Party, is another matter.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer if the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
