John Rapley
JUST A couple of weeks ago Uzbekistan looked like it might become the latest country to succumb to the instability sweeping across central Asia. Barely a month after the uprising in neighbouring Kyrgystan overthrew that country's president, political unrest in the east of Uzbekistan looked set to inflame passions against the Government.
But then, Uzbek President Islam Karimov responded the way he knows best: with brutal repression. He sealed off the area of the Fergana Valley where the rebellion had broken out and expelled foreign journalists. Then, when nobody was able to look, he sent in the troops. Just what happened remains a mystery, since foreign observers were unable to report on events. However, journalists have since reconstructed a picture of the happenings in the region. What has emerged is a picture of a harsh crackdown that left hundreds dead.
Accounts differ over what provoked the uprising. Locals say it was a long-overdue rebellion against the corruption and repression of the Karimov regime. The government, on the other hand, maintains that it was an Islamist rising inspired by foreigners, and had to be put down.
In truth, both sides may lay some claim to truth, if only a partial one. There is a significant Islamist opposition in this part of the country, and some of it has links to foreign groups. In particular, there has been traffic in fighters and weapons across the border with Afghanistan. Neighbouring Tajikistan fought off a powerful Islamist insurgency, which was put down only with the help of Russian troops. Moreover, in at least one village in the rebellious region, a local leader declared a brief-lived Muslim state, before Uzbek troops came and re-imposed their government's authority.
Thus, President Karimov may not be entirely dishonest when he claims that he is facing an Islamist rebellion. Nevertheless, Karimov has a long history of using the Muslim bogeyman as an excuse to crack down on all his political foes. Moreover, his repressive ways not to mention his intolerance of Islam in a Muslim country give his many enemies a reason to rebel.
President Karimov, like the leaders of some other countries, also knows that the way to curry favour with the major powers is to keep invoking the threat of Islamic terror. Both Russia and the United States consider Mr. Karimov an ally in their respective wars on terror. The Kremlin is concerned about its southern flank, including restive places like Chechnya, where Muslim anger is an ever-present threat. The White House worries about Afghanistan, Iran or the border regions of Pakistan. All of these areas remain inter-linked in a volatile nexus.
Thus, both Washington and Moscow have been inclined to turn a blind eye to Mr. Karimov's abuses and to offer him support when he has needed it. Still, the situation is growing uncomfortable. While the U.S. took a somewhat muted stance in response to the outbreak of violence in the Fergana Valley, few of its allies shared its reticence. The British, among others, were quick to condemn Uzbek excesses, and joined calls for an inquiry into what happened.
From what can be discerned, the violence appears to have started when a local rebel group possibly with ties to Afghanistan tried to exploit local discontent with the Karimov government. The flashpoint was the trial of some businessmen in Andijan. Locals argued that the charges were trumped up, and that the only offence of the detainees had been to challenge the Karimov government.
In any event, armed rebels broke into the prison where the businessmen were being held and freed them, along with hundreds of other prisoners. There followed a brief uprising, in which locals apparently joined in spontaneous demonstrations of opposition of the sort just seen in Kyrgystan.
AUTOCRATIC RULE
The rest is history, albeit of a murky type. For the time being, Mr. Karimov appears to have succeeded in crushing another embryonic challenge to his autocratic rule. Despite their growing uneasiness with him, no doubt the U.S. and Russian governments will be sighing with relief.
However, it is unclear how long Mr. Karimov can keep this up. The potency of the explosion of anger against him reveals how deep discontent runs in Uzbekistan. Maybe repression will keep him safe. But maybe it won't.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
