Martin Henry
THE HURRICANE season began yesterday with memories of Ivan still fresh in our minds. And Sunday is World Environment Day. The Met people are predicting another hyperactive year of hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Ivan started well south of the usual hurricane belt in the eastern Caribbean and was the first big storm experienced by Grenada in half a century. The level of destruction there reflected the level of unpreparedness for the unexpected.
We can do little about the coming of the hurricanes. A bit of historical research I am doing now on other matters has thrown up on the side interesting information on the unpredictable frequency of hurricane hits. From our living memory we may be fooled into thinking that hurricanes which strike have many years between them. We had really big storms in '44 and '51, and then not again until '88 and '04. So many people just felt that Ivan wouldn't hit us because, well, hurricanes usually find their way around us and we had prayed for deliverance. But in the 18th century hurricanes struck Jamaica three years in a row in 1784, 1785 and 1786. There were two major storms in 1886 on June 27 and on August 20. Again in 1915 there were hurricanes in August and September, a mere six weeks apart, and then another in 1916 and another in 1917.
HIGHER LOSS OF LIFE
Before early warning systems came into operation and hurricane preparation activities became routine, the loss of life in hurricanes was much higher. Ivan, one of the most powerful hurricanes to have landed since measurements began, took only 17 lives, most of which could have been avoided using the information and provisions available. The United States instituted a West India Weather Service in 1898 mostly to share its hurricane data with these territories. We still rely a lot on the Hurricane Centre in Miami. Older persons will remember the hurricane warning flag which the post offices would fly when news of an approaching storm was received by telegraph. Widespread availability of radio made this warning system redundant.
We complain a lot, but we have in recent years created a decent warning, preparation and recovery system in the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) which have paid rich dividends in reducing damage and loss of life.
So are we humans contributing to the formation of hurricanes? Global warming is believed by many to be linked to the formation of more and bigger storms. And even more believe that human action is the principal cause of global warming. The Kyoto Protocol for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions came into effect on February 16 this year without the major producer of greenhouse gases, the United States, signing on.
But is Kyoto too little too late? The gases, once produced, last a long time in the atmosphere and any reduction in production now will only slow the rate of increase, not stop or reverse it, for decades to come. In the meantime, the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assess-ment Synthesis Report [MA] released in March estimated that 15 of the 24 [62.5 per cent] ecosystem services assessed, services that support life on earth, are being degraded or used in unsustainable ways.
Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any other period, the report said. And these changes are daily increasing the likelihood of potentially abrupt changes that will seriously affect human well-being.
LOCKING HORNS
On a smaller yard note, Govern-ment and some environmentalists are locking horns over the public campaign encouraging the use of diesel for greater fuel efficiency, and reducing the nation's energy bill spent mostly on imported fossil fuels anyway. Last year diesel sales in the U.K. equalled for the first time the sale of gasoline. And Britain is one of the most environmentally-conscious places on the planet. Environmental awareness in Jamaica has also grown enormously although we may not be where we want to be. Diesel has its plusses and minuses which must be carefully examined.
Human action has had a severe impact on the environment which sustains our lives. The UN's MA Report says "The overriding conclusion of this assessment is that it lies within the power of human societies to ease the strains we are putting on the nature services of the planet, while continuing to use them to bring better living standards to all."
This has to be one of the major challenges to human wisdom and capacity for cooperation and collaboration. As people attend the film festival, the concert and church service, and the exhibitions which NEPA has advertised, Environment Week provides opportunity for us to reflect on the human future we are creating today.
Martin Henry is a communication specialist.
