John Rapley
THE FALLOUT from last week's French and Dutch rejections of the proposed European constitution continues. This week started with the British Government announcing that it will, in effect, suspend its own referendum (which polls suggest it would have been hard for the Government to win anyhow).
As I mentioned in last week's column, the referendum defeats do not signal the collapse of the European Union (EU). It will continue to operate under existing arrangements. Nevertheless, deep fissures have opened in Europe, which hint of a difficult future for the EU.
The first, and perhaps most obvious of these, is the so-called Old Europe-New Europe divide. From its inception, the EU was a Franco-German affair, with other countries playing a supporting role. Britain, having come to it reluctantly, always stayed on the margins of European integration. It thus never served as a counterweight to Franco-German domination.
WEAKENED THE INFLUENCE
However, the recent entry of several former Soviet bloc states to the EU tipped the balance in ways that weakened the influence of the French and Germans. The divisions first became open at the time of the Iraq war, when some east European countries broke ranks with France and Germany, and joined with Britain to back the U.S.-led invasion.
Since then, popular fears have been fanned by anti-establishment politicians. In particular, the anxiety that hordes of cheap labourers will flood west into France and Germany, and that mountains of cheap produce will drive French farmers out of business, has turned ordinary people in France against the proposed treaty.
Ironically, Britain, seen by other EU member-states as the most 'Eurosceptic' country in the union, was probably more ready for the eastern challenge than France and Germany have been. Having gone through a painful economic restructuring when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister, and having rolled back much of its welfare-state, Britain is arguably ready to face the new competition.
France and Germany are different matters, though. The French are very reluctant to abandon a way of life that is, admittedly, threatened by the integration of poor regions. Its farms may be inefficient, its labour laws rigid, and its welfare-state cumbersome. But the result has been a very agreeable and relatively secure life for the French.
For its part, Germany's leaders have been aggressively reforming their welfare system to try and make their economy more competitive. In particular, they have been rolling back many of the laws that protect German workers. But ordinary Germans are now turning against their government for it.
At heart, the question really comes down to whether the French and Germans want to cling to past ways, or face a new future. It is not an easy choice. The future promises to be wealthier, but less secure. The past, however, seems likely to die (just as Britain was slowly dying before the Thatcherite revolution).
The fact that Britain has gone further down the road of economic reform, but wants to avoid economic integration, points to another European fissure. Commentators on both sides of the English Channel are suggesting that Britain emerged the victor from recent events. As a country that never wanted to couple political with economic integration, she must be pleased that many ordinary Europeans are apparently feeling the same way.
REFERENDUM
Tactically, Britain provoked this crisis by saying it would hold a referendum on the proposed constitution. This backed the French into a corner, forcing the Government of Jacques Chirac to announce its own referendum. France's no-vote thus lets Britain off the hook. She can forego political union, for now at least, while still proclaiming her commitment to a European project of sorts.
Perhaps the centre of gravity in European politics has shifted south and east towards 'New Europe'. Perhaps it has shifted west to Britain. But what is clear is that, for the moment at least, it has shifted away from Germany and France, whose governments are in disarray.
Whether they can reclaim the initiative in the months ahead will determine whether their vision of Europe stays on track, or is replaced by a competing one. But beneath their optimistic declarations, they are fuming at Britain's decision to suspend its referendum. To them, this is another nail in a coffin built in London, then shipped to the continent.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
