UNLIKE MEXICO, Jamaica escaped the ravages of a direct hit by Hurricane Emily. But this agent of destruction brushed by us while we were still coming to grips with the impact of Dennis and the lag effect of Ivan. It may be cold comfort, but all indications are that the latest turbulent weather will not derail the Government's target of a balanced budget this current fiscal year.
This is not to suggest, however, that the impact of heavy rainfall can be brushed aside. Far from it. Domestic agriculture that was just recovering from the effect of Ivan, could again witness shortages as some crops were washed away. Bananas and coffee are the main casualties here. Additionally, there are reports that while the tourist industry did not suffer direct damage to property, indications are that there are some cancellations that could impact on summer bookings.
Where domestic food prices are concerned, it is accepted that they make a significant impact on the Consumer Price Index, which could, therefore, translate to higher inflation. As there are already doubts about Government's ability to meet its inflation targets, the recent heavy rainfall is definitely bad news.
A more fundamental point to consider, however, is that the heavy damage to the country's physical infrastructure and Government's need to provide expanded welfare relief programmes, could drain resources from an already very tight budget.
Nonetheless, given the finance minister's trenchant commitment to meeting his economic targets, it is not likely that we will see any softening of this position. That implies further sacrifices by whichever sector or sectors bear the burden of the reallocated resources.
All this is a timely reminder that given our location in a natural disaster-prone area and the global climatic trends, we have to prepare ourselves for such emergencies. Ultimately, a vibrant and balanced economy is one of the most important tools required to overcome a major natural disaster.
Thus, the success of the finance minister's economic programme needs to be seen as a necessary component of national survival. That's the inescapable bottom-line.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
