John Rapley
IRAQ'S TORTUOUS constitutional process is getting a little smoother. The deadline to submit a draft constitution to parliament was extended earlier this month when agreement could not be reached. Minutes before that second deadline on Monday at midnight, a document was presented. Even then, it was decided that further discussions would continue until today.
The Americans are desperate to see this process go forward. They would dearly love to leave Iraq. Despite White House bluster, the insurgency is not on its last legs. The death toll among U.S. soldiers is now zeroing in on 2,000. As young men and women fail to return, anxiety grows on the home front. The protest recently launched by a mother of a dead soldier outside President George W. Bush's Texas ranch has resonated very strongly with much of the U.S. public. And support for the war is now starting to weaken within the president's own Republican Party.
The Americans are hoping that if Iraqi politicians can agree a constitution, then elect a new government, it might be possible for U.S. troops to begin withdrawing as early as next spring. Though the White House will not commit to a deadline, it knows this war could become a liability in future elections, just as the Vietnam War did for the government in the 1960s.
A spring withdrawal is probably over-optimistic, given the ineffectiveness of the new U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces. There are plenty of pessimistic scenarios. The most obvious among them is that the constitution fails to provide a rallying-point to Iraqis, but rather divides them along sectarian lines. A U.S. withdrawal might then leave a vacuum that could quickly give in to a civil war.
SHIFTED TACTICS
That appears to be the hopes of the insurgents. In recent months, they have shifted tactics somewhat. With their strong base in the Sunni community, they are focusing their attacks less on U.S. targets, and more on their rival Shi'ites.
The discussions surrounding the constitution appear to reveal a growing sense of exasperation. Sunnis, having largely boycotted the elections earlier this year, are weakly represented among the negotiators. The leaders of the Kurds and Shi'ites can agree on several things, but those things anger most Sunnis. The proposed constitution calls for a decentralised federation which will allow the Kurds to retain their autonomy in the north, and may even make it possible for a virtual state to form in the Shi'ite south.
This state, in turn, may be governed by Islamic law, something which annoys the comparatively secular Sunnis. But what really worries Sunnis is that a potential future breakup of the country could leave them considerably worse off. Having lost their political control of Iraq to the US-led invasion, they now risk losing their economic well-being as well.
This is because the draft constitution calls for revenues from future oil development to flow to the provinces, not the federal government. Because Iraq's oil reserves are concentrated in the north and south of the country, the nascent Shi'ite and Kurdish states would end up much better off. The Sunni region in the centre and west of the country would lose its long-standing control over the country's economic wealth.
With so much at stake, therefore, this war is only likely to intensify over the medium term. Shi'ite and Kurdish politicians appear determined to press ahead with their constitution, ignoring Sunni objections.
There is still the possibility that the Sunnis could scuttle the deal. The framework law governing the process specifies that if two-thirds of the populations of any three provinces oppose the constitution, it will not come into force. With Sunnis being the majority in four of Iraq's 18 provinces, a strong turnout in October's planned constitutional referendum would enable them to strike down the deal.
But will insurgents allow them to vote this time? Or will they try to play an end-game and intensify the conflict from now? Whatever the outcome, it may well be that some in the White House are ruing the day they chose to ignore the advice of those who said they'd regret barging into Iraq.
John Rapley is senior lecturer in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies, Mona campus.
