Tony Myers, Contributor
Prime Minister P.J. Patterson signals to the People's National Party delegates on his arrival for their 67th annual conference at the National Arena on September 10. - IAN ALLEN/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
I HAVE known Prime Minister P.J. Patterson for over three decades and can attest to the many sterling qualities of this great son of the once quiet and peaceful farming community of Dias, western Hanover.
In my article published in The Gleaner, June 13, 2004,
captioned 'Patterson throws in the towel March 2006', I pointed out many of his significant contributions to nation building one of which stood out like a beacon: "The role he played in winning the war against electoral malpractices". In his address to the 67th annual conference of the PNP, Sunday, September 11, 2005, the final presentation in his capacity as Party Leader, he, for the first time, told party
supporters and the rest of the nation when he would be demitting office as Party Leader and Prime Minister. Was it sheer coincidence that his timetable confirmed what was highlighted by The Gleaner in the June 13, 2004 publication: 'Patterson throws in towel March 2006 says political analyst Tony Myers,'? My exact words were as follows: "In spite of major improvements in health services, infrastructure such as roads and water, land for the landless, housing for the poor and the retrieval of hope and faith in our political system posterity will call him blessed should he conclude his major objective to improve the quality of governance in the interest of the whole society. He has until March 20, 2006 to carve such a monument in gold, at the end of which he will retire from active politics."
CONFIDENTIALITY
Here is another side of this great Jamaican: confidentiality. I cannot recall over these many years having given him any data for 'his eyes only' that he has revealed to anyone.
Here is a case in point. During the period 2000 to January 2001, the leading pollsters had the PNP trailing the JLP in the majority of constituencies. One leading member of the Stone team asked Reverend Roper to "Say a prayer for your PNP" and in another article published on May 5, 2001, invited his readers to: "Cut out this article and paste it in your scrap book. Take it out the day after the next election. Then give Tony Myers a call if you can ferret him out of his hiding place." This was in response to a statement I made on the Breakfast Club, Thursday, March 29, 2001, that the PNP would be returned for a fourth term. In the same article, apart from calling my name 22 times, The Observer 'polling expert' had this to say: "Whenever I tell people
like Tony Myers (Gleaner psephologist) that the electorate is finished with the PNP, they want to cry and throw a tantrum."
What Mr. Mark Wignall did not know was the fact that
having completed my projections for all 60 constituencies on the eve of the Ides of March, and based on my findings in keeping with a promise made to Prime Minister Patterson, February 20, 2001, I had submitted to the PNP President a carefully-analysed projected result of the next
parliamentary general election whenever it was called for his eyes only. Consistent with his being a man with character, for a man without character cannot be trusted, he never revealed the data, to anyone. The data were submitted April 2, 2001, four days after I spoke with authority on the Breakfast Club.
All 60 constituencies were
broken down into five categories A, B, C, D and E.
Category A: 15 safe constituencies which the PNP all won. Category B: 19 "constituencies with greatest prospect of ensuring a close margin of victory, the focus must therefore be centred on these 19 seats between now and the date of the election." Come October 16, the PNP won 16 of the 19 seats. It is interesting to note that the PNP won two of the first four seats from Category C which had eight constituencies. The JLP as projected, won all of Category D which had four constituencies and in Category E, which had 14 constituencies, the JLP won 13.
The bottom line therefore as presented to the PM, was 34 in a very closely contested election. Those who followed my publications in The Gleaner starting from March 2002 to October 2002, can attest to my having called correctly 54 of the 60
constituencies.
It is interesting to note that although the statistical data were completed as early as mid-March 2001, approximately 18 months before the October 16, 2002 Parliamentary General Election, it can be said without fear of contradiction, that the accuracy of the data as presented to the Prime Minister was second to none. On the day in question, I also presented to him a statistical analysis and projected result
of his eastern Westmoreland constituency. As projected, the margin of victory was 4,798. On October 16, 2002, he had a majority of 4,789, a difference of nine.
THREE PREDICTIONS
Fellow Jamaicans, having correctly stated that The Most Hon. Edward George Seaga would retire from active politics just before his 75th birthday (Observer February 4, 2004), and The Most Hon. P. J. Patterson March 2006 (Sunday Gleaner, June 13, 2004), to be succeeded by the Hon. Portia Simpson Miller, it is now left to see whether all three predictions will be on target.
As I write this article, all four contenders are in the 'trenches' campaigning, some trying
desperately to convince the
delegates as to their capacity to create a new Jamaica where
justice and peace reign supreme. I would advise all four candidates to put God in the mix, for without him they are twice defeated not being able to achieve the unity of purpose needed to effect the transformation.
Come late 2006 or early 2007, the next parliamentary general election is likely to be called. It will be one of the closest elections to be held
during the period December 14, 1944 - October 16, 2002.
When one thinks of a fifth consecutive term for one of the two major parties, one wonders whether the likelihood is only wishful thinking. With less than nine months before the next
municipal and parish councils' general election, should it be called, both major political
parties should get a clear picture as to which party is likely to enter the arena of political
oblivion some time within the period June 2006 to October 2007.
In closing, I can say without fear of contradiction, that the data now being compiled, point to a Trinidadian experience should the constituency boundaries remain an even number. The last Anderson poll re party standing was mathematically flawed. There is much more to come over the next four to five months.
Anthony 'Tony' Myers is a statistician/political analyst.
