John Rapley
WHAT SHOULD have been a moment of triumph in the construction of a new Iraq has become another symbol of the country's deteriorating state. Saddam Hussein stood defiantly before the tribunal that, nobody doubts, will sentence him to death. Hardly any human rights body sanctions the trial. Before a court of inexperienced judges -- Iraq under Saddam Hussein didn't bother itself unduly with niceties like due process -- in a courthouse built by the Americans, on a schedule imposed by the government, with a delayed video feed to allow sensitive testimony to be removed - the spectacle gives more than a hint that this is merely a case of "victor's justice."
Not that anyone need shed any tears for Saddam Hussein. He is receiving a vastly fairer hearing than he allowed any of his own people during his reign of terror. In short, there is little fear that an innocent man will be penalised unjustly.
Rather, the concern of many is that the low standard of legal process evinced by this court augurs a future Iraq that is much less than what its American occupiers promised. The U.S. maintains that the process is a great improvement upon Iraq's former legal system, and stands decidedly above anything seen throughout the region.
LESS THAN PROMISED
That may be true. But it may also be missing the point. This trial is much less than what we were told Iraq would be getting, namely a new democracy. That is because Iraq itself is turning out to be much less than was promised.
There may be the odd glimmer of hope. Early indications are that the new draft constitution will be approved. This will set the stage for elections later in the year, and the formation of a permanent government. Pointing to such developments, apologists for the White House can say the new Iraq is really coming into being.
But beneath the surface, matters are worsening. It is not only that the insurgency shows no signs of abating. Indeed, there is a danger that the trial could become a rallying-point for the opposition. As incredible as it may seem, Saddam Hussein, in his bold defiance before his obvious fate, may make himself a martyr. Among Sunnis, and among foreign Arabs sympathetic to the insurgency, the trial may turn into an indictment of the new regime.
Beyond that, omens in parts of the country where Sunnis are not a significant force are equally disturbing. In the south, it is becoming clear that the emergent state apparatus is being largely penetrated by private militias. Once the Americans and their allies leave Iraq, these militias may well turn their guns on one another. This could, in turn, create a Lebanon-scenario.
SETTLING THEIR OWN SCORES
Worryingly, the militias apparently prefer to settle their own scores than to rely on the occupation-imposed peace. Relations between locals and British troops in the south had until recently been superior to those between Americans and their charge. No more: recent months have witnessed a clear deterioration.
There have, nevertheless, been advances in the construction of Iraq's new security apparatus. Iraqi units are more professional, and more of them are able to operate on their own. But there is little confidence that they will not, given the chance, sink into inter-factional fighting.
There is thus a real fear that Iraq could break up. The new constitution, if it's approved, will give Kurds enough autonomy for their leaders to move towards an eventual declaration of independence. In the south, the Shi'ites could constitute themselves as a virtually autonomous state. As for the Sunnis, the indicators are that they opposed this new constitution strongly, but were unable to muster the numbers to prevent its adoption. Resentment at their disfranchisement is likely to feed the insurgency.
All in all, though it may be an improvement on Saddam's Iraq, the new Iraq - like the trial itself - may be merely the prelude to a descent into worse. All the while, violence continues and basic services are lacking.
The tribunal looks like an attempt to put some structure in place to enable a gracious retreat. That is indeed probably a fitting metaphor for the American experience in Iraq.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
