Cliff Williams, Contributor
THE FAILURE of 2000 Guineas winner Rampage to concede upwards of four kilograms to 13 rivals all round in the 2000-metre Lotto Classic for the Governor's Cup last weekend has all but cast doubt on the possibility of Triple Crown glory for Richard Azan's 2005 champion juvenile.
Frankly, it was not difficult to envisage that at the weights and distance Rampage would have had to improve on his two and a half length level weight 2000 Guineas victory over Alliedforce to prevail again with as much as a four-kilo swing in favour of this nearest rival. There is a theory that in these Futurities class this is generally more important than stamina but weight has also been an important factor.
VERY POOR
The time posted in the Lotto Classic was a pedestrian 2: 10.1, which is really very poor given the fact the track was by no means slow and only Rampage (five lengths fourth with 57 kilos) ran with more than 53 kilograms. As far as I am concerned, this clocking means that none of the horses making frame are genuine stayers of any class.
Alliedforce has to be considered the genuine article with his length and a half victory here to go with his second-place finish in the 2000 Guineas. It has to be said at this stage that this colt is a credit to his trainer, the shrewd veteran Noel Ennevor.
Alliedforce looked only fairly useful although undefeated in his first three races then ran Rampage to two and a half lengths in the 2000 Guineas, beating the rest of the field comfortably in the process. This performance by itself established this late developer as a realistic contender for Classic success and the promise was confirmed in the Lotto.
Against the background of Rampage's dominance as a juvenile culminating in a better than nine-length victory in the rich Jamaica Stakes followed by his 2000 Guineas triumph, serious questions now have to be raised about his superiority.
Clearly it has diminished somewhat dramatically in his three appearances this year. First, The Smoker failed by only a neck to overhaul him in the Prince Consort Stakes; then secondly, his Guineas victory over Alliedforce was hardly convincing as he appeared in the end more tired than his closest pursuer; and, thirdly, despite his theoretical weight disadvantage in the Lotto Classic, he was expected to display less stamina limitations.
FOOLHARDY
Still, I think it would be foolhardy to write off Rampage as the top contender for the 2400-metre Premier Classic, the Jamaica Derby. He will meet Alliedforce, Ransom Man and Hidalgo, all ahead of him in the Lotto Classic, on level terms and in my view, he is undoubtedly the best three-year-old. One cannot be faulted for thinking that at level weights, stamina limitations or not, the others are not likely to beat him over the Derby distance.
The result of the Lotto Classic has just about ensured that the 2005 Derby will be viewed as one of the most open in recent memory. Along with the filly Swing By, heroine of the 1000 Guineas and Jamaica Oaks, any of the top four of the opposite sex, namely Rampage, Allied Force, Ransom Man and Hildalgo could improve again at a faster rate than rivals between now and June 3, 2005 and gallop into immortality.
