Who was the better leader? Michael Manley, Edward Seaga or PJ Patterson? Did the focused investment in the manufacturing sector during the 70s reap positive results? Should Jamaica have gone communist?
These are perennial questions debated on by Jamaicans across the world over many bottles of beer.
But finally, there will be some definitive answers.The team of researchers working together on the Jamaican Economy Project met at a conference held at the University of the West Indies in May, to share preliminary findings from their exploration of the sources of Jamaica's problems.
Factors such as crime, political leadership, institutional and administrative capacity, the external environment, political economy of development, and the social psychology of under-performance were examined by both young and established Jamaican researchers from Jamaica, the US, the UK and France.
While each area of research has yielded various findings and identified further questions, all the research point to the 1970s as seminal in shaping and defining Jamaica.
LONG-TERM DAMAGE
"There is some consensus among the researchers that the experimental period of the 1970s did the Jamaican economy long-term damage in key areas. However, during that time the significant social gains were made in ways that had not previously been seen," said Dr. John Rapley, JEP chair.
For example, researcher Tres Ann Cooke has identified positive relationships between the decline in economic performance and the increase in crime rates during the 1970s and 1980s. While an 'aggressive' political climate was a factor in the decline, she pointed out that violent crime persisted even amidst reduction in unemploy-ment and attempts to reduce social inequality.
The project, tag lined "Taking Responsibility," began in October 2004, and represents the first ever rigorous interdisciplinary examination of Jamaica's per-formance since independence. It intends to contribute definitively to dispelling myths and offering practical policy prescriptions.
By taking a serious look at Jamaica, asking hard questions and peering into the performance of cousins such as Singapore, Mauritius, Barbados, Botswana, Hong Kong, and Ireland; the Project is piecing together answers which will explain why Jamaica has not experienced the same economic outcomes of say, Singapore, which gained inde-pendence during the same period and has experienced similar conditions over the past 40 years.
GIANT LEAPS
And yet, while Jamaica lost some ground flirting with socialism and an inward-looking development strategy, a number of giant leaps were made in a number of key areas such as, social policy, respect for property rights, greater respect for rule of law, contract enforcement, debt repayment, vibrant democracy and tolerance of dissent to name a few.
The country's development has also been tied to its leadership. Researchers Anna Perkins, Alvin Wint and Beverley Shirley assert that political leadership has had considerable influence over the factors that impact economic growth and therefore must accept some responsibility for "lacklustre and anaemic growth" since the 1960s. The leadership question must also be brought to bear on the reality that Jamaica's HDI moved from 39th in 1975 (when the Index began) to 98th in 2005.
There is great excitement about the JEP in the public and private sector locally,as well as among overseas funding agencies, some of which have made significant financial contributions. The work will continue at least until December 2006 when the project is slated to end, with some groups already turning in their results.
One thing is clear. When the
work of this project has been completed, Jamaicans will finally have some solid facts on which to base their decisions over many bottles of beer.
