Beverley Anderson-Manley

The People's National Party (PNP) has just concluded its 68th Annual Conference, presided over by new Party Leader Portia Simpson Miller. According to General Secretary Colin Campbell, by the time of the October 1 National Executive Council meeting, the PNP will announce its full slate of candidates. This will mark yet another stage in the process leading up to the general election which, although not due until next year, is expected before the end of 2006.

By October 1, it is expected that the PNP will crank up its electoral machinery. In the meantime, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is doing what any Opposition would do in the circumstances. that is they are working on the ground from constituency to constituency, building their organisation. The general secretary of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has commented on the favourable response being received by the party as the team, led by Party Leader Bruce Golding, continues the ongoing work in the field. To that extent, the JLP is at a further stage of preparation than the PNP.

A Tight Race

In the meantime, recent polls are pointing to a close contest between the parties. On a recent CVM television programme discussing the results of the Don Anderson polls, political analyst Kevin O'Brien Chang noted that the JLP seems to be carrying out 60 mini-elections - one in each constituency - while the PNP seems set for a more national election. This, of course is not to say that the PNP will not need to do work on a constituency by constituency level, particularly in an environment where, in the 2002 general election, at least 16 seats were considered marginal - that is, having been won by less than 1,000 votes.

Whatever happens, the process leading up to the next general election is going to be an intriguing one for a number of reasons.

The PNP has a new leader who is Jamaica's first woman party leader and prime minister. When the election is called, what kind of impact will this have on female vis-à-vis male voters, if any? Will Portia continue to have high levels of female support? This support from women is unusual, as at a global level, women do not necessarily support women. Thirdly, Portia Simpson Miller is from the 'bowels of the working class.' Again, the polls are showing that she has more support among this class than the middle class. Can she do anything to attract more middle-class support? Finally, Bruce Golding, like Portia, is facing his first general election as party leader, with polls showing Simpson Miller way ahead of him.

Two new leaders are in a situation where consistently, 40 per cent of voters continue to remain in the uncommitted category.

Many of the younger voters on the voters' list have never seen a JLP administration in office - in a situation where the PNP has been in government since 1989. How will each party address these critical voters?

ISSUES

What are the major issues that will make a difference in terms of which party a voter chooses? There is no doubt that issues to do with economic policy, including a viable debt management strategy and the possibility of economic growth and employment will be of paramount importance.

If the dead heat situation between the two parties continues, then the issue of the party leader could be even more instructive than in previous elections. Voters will have an opportunity to view both leaders - Portia and Bruce - and assess who they think will serve Jamaica best at this time. In keeping with this, some of the ongoing issues to do with governance - taking responsibility and being accountable - may play second fiddle. Separately, a leader who has a deep interest in reforming the political process as well as dealing with issues of corruption at all levels of the society could make an impact.

In the end though, what we can do is to urgently build a civil society that can play its role as watchdogs on those we pay to serve us.

At this moment, it is anybody's bet which party will win the next general election.

Beverley Anderson-Manley is a political scientist and gender cnsultant. Email: BManley@kasnet.com