Martin Henry

Crime is trending downwards, we are told. But downwards to where? In 1960 there were 60 murders. The murder rate was 3.3 per 100,000. Most killings were of the domestic nature and crimes of passion. And most murder suspects were brought to trial.

The murder rate is now 57.7 per 100,000 - a 17-fold increase. The character of violent crime has dramatically shifted to gangsterism, vendettas, reprisals, inter-community wars, turf battles, and a far greater inclination to settle disputes with violence. And there is a flood of illegal guns to get the job done. At the same time, fewer than half of murder suspects are arrested. Jamaica is one of those few weird places where crimes against property [the poverty argument] are less than crimes against the person.

The criminologists have provided powerful but very simple insights into criminal behaviour which I have written about extensively before and which can be applied to crime fighting tomorrow morning. First of all, the professional criminal class is very small and can be identified: 'The dirty seven per cent.' Then criminals make careful calculations about the risk of being caught, and raising that risk level drives down crime. What the criminals have done is drive down that risk level with terrorist strategies ruthlessly enforcing a code of silence. Furthermore, for entire 'organised' communities crime has become an integral feature of their local economies with the gun a basic working tool.

Broken window

Then there is the broken window theory: If a single vandalised window is not repaired, criminals decide that nobody cares and escalate their actions.

And where has been the Govern-ment in all this? The most fundamental duties of the state are for law and order and security. People have, therefore, been forced to deliver a vote of no confidence in the Jamaican state and its various governments. This incapacity of the state has been another reason for the escalation of crime as people feel obliged to apply their own violent solutions to the settlement of disputes and the achievement of 'justice'.

British-recruited Assistant Commissioner of Police Leslie Green told us frankly last week [outsiders are better at this] that "Successive governments have failed to give support in relation to the funding needed to fight crime." Forensic capabilities and crime scene investigation capabilities are poor, he said. "There needs to be an enormous input into fighting crime and providing the basic resources for our police officers. It is very difficult to work with literally nothing," he lamented.

We are not going to get back to 1960. For all kinds of reasons, the whole world has changed in a more criminal direction. But to really push those crime numbers down we have to apply the iron fist on the right hand and the velvet glove on the left.

Criminals and all those who aid and abet them, including the network of women who are beneficiaries and protectors, must be ruthlessly pursued and brought to justice by all available means. The leadership of criminal networks, which may extend to high and honourable places, must be carefully flushed out. If big crimes cannot be made to stick, let lesser ones stick and get them out of action. Jamaica must be de-donned, disarmed of illegal weapons, and entire communities liberated with the security forces providing security everywhere and for everyone for crime to significantly go down.

Public order

Zero tolerance for civic misdemeanours and the maintenance of public order have been proven to push down hard crimes. This may be hard for Jamaica since we seem to have exceptionally high acceptance and tolerance for disorder and rule bending.

But with the velvet glove we must clean up the social and economic conditions which breed crime and make policing unduly difficult and unsuccessful. I am talking about very basic things. Cleaning up communities with the people's own labour paid for as employment. Fixing streets. Organising legal access to utilities. Providing state services. Getting young people into available skills training programmes. Keeping children in school. Encouraging legitimate civic leadership. Encou-raging and supporting entrepreneurship. Getting the police on the streets as peacekeepers, 'to protect, to serve, to reassure'.

Martin Henry is a communication specialist.