John Rapley

With less than a week to go before mid-term elec-tions in the United States, expectations for a shake-up are riding high.

Analysts now suggest that the country may witness a political earthquake of the likes not seen in over a decade. The much-vaunted Republican machine, which com-pleted a conservative revolution at the start of this century when it captured all levels of the federal government, will be tested to the limit in trying to withstand a Democratic onslaught.

Voters in the U.S. are in a surly mood. The last time they registered this sort of discontent was back in 1994. Then, when President Bill Clinton was at the nadir of his popularity, they turned against the Democrats and produced the 'Republican Revolution.'

Since then - their advances obscured somewhat by the headline re-election of President Clinton in 1996 - they went from strength to strength. They peaked in 2004 when, solidifying their control of Congress and the presidency, they looked forward to turning the Supreme Court to the right.

But in the last two years, things have not gone well for the Republicans. The Iraq war has grown ever more unpopular. Both the president's and the Congress's approval ratings are low.

Polling analysis now suggests that the Democrats have an excellent chance of retaking the House of Representatives. And they might yet pull off the big coup, which is to retake the Senate as well. This would be the Republican nightmare scenario, for it would turn President Bush into a 'lame duck' for his last two years in office.

All about strategy

Republican survival will now come down to one thing: whether or not the party's electoral machinery can overcome its demoralisation and turn people out on Tuesday. The Republicans spent decades building an effective organisation from the ground up. They now go so far as to track statistics on purchasing behaviour in order to target likely supporters, then get them to the ballot booths. The Republican strategy is to connect with its core or base, keeping it loyal and motivated.

The Democrats, by contrast, have opted for a strategy of identifying 'swing' votes, tailoring their messages to win their support, then identifying the key races into which to throw their resources. Their top-down electioneering method is thus the mirror-image of the Republican Party's.

Yet grave divisions beset the Democratic Party. Those close to Bill Clinton defend this approach, saying it delivered the White House to the party twice in the 1990s. But their many critics in the party point out that while that happened, the party went on to lose most statehouses, both houses of Congress, and much of its base. One of the 'rebel' leaders, Howard Dean, is thus using his chairmanship of the party to rebuild the grassroots painstakingly.

The numbers suggest the Demo-crats have no reason not to do well. Yet some Republicans remain confident that their machinery will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on Tuesday. That would be an even bigger shock than a Democratic sweep.

Either way, one party is probably going to start a period of soul-searching next week. Either the Republicans will begin to wonder how they managed to alienate so many Americans (is it really any wonder?). Or Democrats will wonder how on earth they failed, even in the most propitious of times, to motivate their supporters.

John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.