John Rapley

The exit surveys were clear. Americans went to the polls in larger-than-usual numbers to deliver a message. They do not like the direction in which President George W. Bush has taken the country, and will force him to listen to them.

Tuesday's election result arguably represents the reversal of the much-vaunted Republican revolution of 1994, when Republicans swept to power in Congress and backed President Bill Clinton against the wall. Curiously, the years that followed would be judged by many analysts as a very successful period of government. Because a Republican Congress squared off against a Democratic White House, a period of negotiation and compromised ensued, giving many Americans a sense that their voices were being heard.

Plainly, many of them felt ignored by the current system. They found the administration arrogant, and congressional Republicans cowed into submission by its demands. As the Iraq war grew increasingly unpopular, the President essentially dismissed objectors and gave carte blanche to his patronising but seemingly incompetent, Defence Secretary.

Above all, reasoned his strategists, Mr. Bush had to please his base. That meant ignoring the opposition. And in truth, that approach worked wonders for a while. Then came Tuesday night.

Powerful acolytes

I have argued for years that Mr. Clinton and his powerful acolytes in the Democratic Party have repeatedly succeeded in mobilising the Republican right while demoralising the Democratic left, enabling the Republicans to repeatedly snatch victories from the jaws of what appeared to be inevitable defeat.

This week, we saw the mirror image of that. Conservative Repub-licans were disillusioned by what they saw as complacency in the midst of corruption scandals, and a fiscal profligacy which betrayed their core values. Meanwhile, Democrats were so angered by their country's government that, they turned out in their numbers to register their objections.

We can safely say that Mr. Bush's agenda of right-wing politics has been shelved. He can still salvage his presidency, as Mr. Clinton did in 1994, by becoming a negotiator and compromiser.

How they interpret their electoral triumph will go a long way to determining how they position themselves over the next two years. If they legislate effectively, and provide an effective but not overbearing check on the White House, they may be rewarded in two years' time with further gains, and possibly even the White House.

Core supporters

However, the party will have to wrestle with - and find ways to resolve - its internal divisions. United by the common foe of Mr. Bush, Democrats were this week able to speak with one voice. But both the left and right wings of the party could claim a mandate from the results, and in the process return the party to a path that could alienate its own core supporters.

For those who dislike the current direction of the U.S., that is arguably the greatest danger. A rising Democratic tide has just made the party's 2008 presidential nomination an even more attractive prize than it already was. The jockeying for position will begin shortly. It could prove divisive.

I will thus make a prediction: the course of the next two years' politics will revolve largely around the question of whether the Clintons decide they want the White House back in 2008. If they decide they do, and the party slugs it out, there's a real danger the Democratic tide will run aground in 2008.

John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.