John Rapley
'Some Christians have formed an alliance with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah itself has seen the virtues of working with Christians.'
As Lebanon mourned the death of Pierre Gemayel, the cabinet minister assassinated on Tuesday, Washington wasted no time in pointing the finger at Syria. It seems straightforward: the member of a pro-Western government is killed, reducing the number of pro-government ministers and thereby threatening to bring down the government itself. Hezbollah exploits the breach to step in. Presto, Damascus is calling the shots again in Lebanon.
The thing is, nothing is ever straightforward in Lebanon. The tiny country's politics can be bewilderingly complex. And while Syria would seem to gain from this tragedy, the potential risks seem even greater than the potential gains.
The principal gain would be not only the fall of an anti-Syrian coalition, but also with that, the cancellation of plans to hold a tribunal on the death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Mr. Hariri had led the anti-Syrian coalition. His murder in 2005 had the fingerprints of the Syrians all over it. The tribunal was expected to bring that into the public light.
Power-sharing system
In the complicated power-sharing system that Lebanon has evolved to bring harmony to a society fragmented along religious lines, the government falls if one-third of its members withdraw. Hezbollah recently pulled out its six ministers. With Mr. Gemayel's death, therefore, the government is near to collapse. One more death, and it will go. Many observers are thus convinced that another assassination is imminent.
Yet, while Syria stands to gain from this government's collapse, because all eyes are on Damascus, it seems a risky time to pull off such an attack. Moreover, Syria's star had been rising of late. Between U.S. setbacks in Iraq and the advances of Hezbollah - a Syrian ally - in Lebanon, Syria arguably had the wind at its back. While they can be ruthless, the Syrians are also ruthlessly Machiavellian, and this would seem to be a risk too great.
'There are plenty other possible candidates for the murder. The fact that Mr. Gemayel is a Christian and Hezbollah represents Muslims might seem to create an obvious religious fault-line. But again, it is not that simple. Some Christians have formed an alliance with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah itself has seen the virtues of working with Christians. Indeed, to the extent that this assassination could turn Christians against Hezbollah, the Shiite movement may actually end up worse off.
Costly
'What does seem clear is that whoever was behind the murder - Syria or a local faction, possibly even one within the Christian community itself - the responsible party had one goal: to destabilise Lebanon and drive it back to war. Peace may seem an obvious boon. But it is costly to those who live off war.
'Because of the seemingly religious basis to the conflict, therefore, many observers fear the country could tip back over the edge into a civil war. But while reprisals seem all but inevitable in the days ahead, Lebanon may yet avoid the slide back into the carnage of its past. For one thing, memories of the conflict remain strong, and painful. Moreover, none of the leading factions in Lebanese politics would seem to have an interest in war at this time.
Finally, the common foe of Israel appears to have united the Lebanese. With Israel eager to avenge its recent failings in its war with Hezbollah, that threat remains present. It may well serve to keep Lebanese bonds tight.
We may never know for sure who killed Mr. Gemayel. Certainly, Damascus and Washington will both try to play the crime to their advantage. But there are still grounds for hope that Lebanon will remain more or less peaceful, at least for now.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
