United States President George W. Bush, at a meeting in Jordan, insisted this week that the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki was "the right guy for Iraq". Unfortunately for him, the day before a memorandum from his national security adviser had been leaked to the press. It had raised the possibility that perhaps Mr. Maliki was not the man for the job.

Signs of apparent desperation seem to be emerging in the American capital. The Americans are not sure if they can trust Mr. Maliki. It is well-known that Shi'ite militias belonging to his political allies have penetrated the Iraqi security forces and are terrorising civilians. What is not clear to the Americans is whether Mr. Maliki is abetting this, or has merely been too weak to do something about it.

To judge from the content of the memo, it seems almost irrelevant whether the Americans succeed in establishing Mr. Maliki's trustworthiness. He is either a corrupt or weak leader. Either scenario presents the Americans with few options. And that is especially so at a time when domestic pressure in the U.S. for a troop withdrawal is building.

In short, U.S. leverage is declining at the very time when it is more needed than ever. The bi-partisan Iraq Study Group suggested this week that it would call for a phased draw-down of troops, to begin as early as next spring.

Mr. Bush quickly dismissed the suggestion, insisting that American soldiers would stay in Iraq for as long as the government there wanted them. But with U.S. troop casualties mounting, and Iraq moving ever more inexorably towards a civil war - by many definitions, the country has actually already crossed the threshold - support for such a course of action will grow weaker yet.

Maybe a miraculous turnabout of sorts may yet appear. Maybe, under the pressure of a U.S. withdrawal, the Iraqi government will find the wherewithal to strengthen and clean up its own security forces. Maybe, seeing progress in Iraq, ordinary Americans will then begin to rally around their president and support the U.S. staying in until the job is properly done.

Maybe. More likely, it would seem the U.S. has begun the slow and dreary march towards what will be seen in much of the world as a humiliating retreat.

If so, and if Iraq thus becomes the next Vietnam - a failed mission at enormous cost - the U.S. administration will have nobody to blame but itself.

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