John Rapley

MARSEILLE, France:

An election campaign that began with promise, looking like substantive change would finally be entertained in a moribund French political system, has descended to farce. As other countries reinvent themselves in a global age, France looks like it might once again close its eyes and hope the monsters in its midst just go away.

On Monday, the French presidential campaign entered its final, official phase. Over the next week and a half, all the candidates will get equal time in the media. According to the polls, the race has reverted largely to where it started out. The conservative candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, is comfortably ahead in the polls. His socialist rival, Segolene Royal, has still failed to gain traction. And the centrist candidate, Francois Bayrou, who looked like he might become a spoiler earlier in the campaign, has been unable to sustain his momentum.

None of the three leading candidates will win a majority of votes in the first round, though. That means that the two candidates who win the most votes in the first round of voting will go through to a final round. It is at this stage that surprises could occur.

It is all but certain that Nicolas Sarkozy will make it through to the second round. The question is, who will he then confront? If it is Ms. Royal, he is likely to win. But if it is Mr. Bayrou, the contest will become close. The thing is that the odds on Mr. Bayrou making it out of the second round are lengthening. Another way of putting it is that more people tolerate than actually like him.

Humiliation

At this stage, it does appear that the extremes of French politics will be less of a factor than they were in 2002. Then, the far left surged, drawing support from the socialists and leaving them out of the second round of voting. Meanwhile, the far right also surged, and its candidate - Jean-Marie LePen - squeaked through to the second round in what was a humiliation for France: a neofascist presidential candidate in the second round of voting.

This time, the far left seems to be disappearing. The once venerable Communist Party is on the verge of virtual extinction. The far right, meanwhile, retains its base. But it will not be able to profit from a divided left as it did in 2002. So analysts are pondering what possible impact the far right could exercise on the traditional right.

Nobody can say for sure. Mr. LePen, a veteran candidate running in his last presidential election, has recently hinted that he might be able to talk with Mr. Sarkozy. Mr. Sarkozy cannot possibly be seen to accept such an invitation. But in his own rhetoric, he is moving further to the right.

In the process, he - along with some of the other candidates - seems to be descending to buffoonery. Mr. Sarkozy recently came out on the side of eugenics when he said that pedophiles and people with suicidal tendencies inherited their conditions at birth (and so, presumably, could be aborted). Not to be outdone, though, Ms. Royal announced that she would refuse to negotiate with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan - a fine idea, except that the Taliban were overthrown six years ago.

All the while, over two-fifths of the electorate remains undecided. This factor could prove decisive. A major faux-pas by one of the candidates could turn sentiment against him or her, a real possibility given their proclivities for gaffes.

But at the end of it, it's not clear France will get much renewal. It may be only the French who fail to see how much they need it.