Vernon Daley

The change campaign of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is quite nice and sexy. As one comrade said to me recently, it's simple, straightforward and people can grasp it easily. Whether it will bring home the bacon is another matter.

In fact, those 'not changing course' ads seem to have put the governing People's National Party (PNP) on the back foot. The Portia Simpson Miller team can't seem to make up its mind how to respond.

When you meet PNP members and supporters out in the streets, they are adamant that they're not changing course but the Prime Minister says that Portia is the change - whatever that means. And when you read the PNP's newspaper ads they try to get across the message that the PNP has been the party of change throughout Jamaica's modern political history.

It all seems a bit confusing and messy. It's either the PNP is changing course or it's not. There is no way to eat the cake and have it, too. The PNP campaign strategists need to give us a coherent message. They haven't donea good job so far.

The call for a change

The change campaign isn't a stroke of genius on the part of the JLP. In fact, it practically recommends itself. With a party in power for the past 18 years and looking for a fifth term in office, what more effective campaign for an Opposition to run than the call for a change?

Barbados Prime Minister Owen Arthur knows that only too well. An astute political animal, Arthur has seen the change campaign a thousand miles away and has already sought to counter it, with more than a year to go before that country's general election is due.

Arthur's Barbados Labour Party has been in power for a record three terms and is now seeking to take that a step further with a fourth victory at the polls. The Prime Minister said last week that the Opposition Democratic Labour Party would use a 'time for a change' strategy in the next election campaign but cleverly warned Barbadians not to gamble with their future.

He knows that he has to confront that issue before time catches up with him. I would say A+ for the Barbados Prime Minister for that masterful pre-emptive strike.

The change campaign, whether in Jamaica, Barbados or elsewhere, is usually attractive to young people who tend to be more adventurous and less bogged down by the uncertainties of the future.

JLP and young voters

This is borne out by the latest Bill Johnson poll, published in The Sunday Gleaner. According to the newspaper's report, Johnson found that the JLP has done a better job than the PNP since May in persuading young voters to support it.

Johnson said the party's support in the 18-24 age group recorded a 16 percentage point increase during the last three months and a 10 percentage point gain among persons ages 25-34 for the same period. The PNP, on the other hand, has suffered a two percentage point slip among both age groups combined since May.

I mention this because it coincides with my own impression when I speak to people in those age groups.

However,I have to say that I am somewhat concerned about the Johnson poll when it is considered that the numbers don't add up. According to the Gleaner story, there is 40 per cent support for the PNP and 34 per cent support for the JLP. Nine per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided, two per cent refused to comment and 14 per cent said they were not going to vote.

I've always been rather better at English than maths but I'm still pretty sure that those numbers add up to 99 per cent. My question is: where is the other one per cent? This fuzzy math does nothing to enhance the credibility of the Johnson polls.