Pakistan is facing an ultimatum from the Commonwealth to restore its constitution and lift emergency measures or face suspension from the 53-nation association. This comes in the wake of the collapse of what amounted to a marriage of convenience between President Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto.

No sooner did Ms. Bhutto return from exile to team up with the President, her old rival, than Mr. Musharraf had her arrested and imposed emergency rule. The putative basis for Mr. Musharraf's move is the need to step up the war on terrorists. Islamists do appear to be gaining ground in Pakistan, and a recent spate of suicide bombings suggests they are becoming ever more brazen.

With Mr. Musharraf increasingly isolated within Pakistan, the Americans judged that arranging a partnership between their old ally and Mrs. Bhutto offered the best hopes for stabilising the regime. However, the actual basis of Mr. Musharraf's suspension of the constitution reveals the fragility of the situation. Increasingly, it is believed that the Supreme Court was on the verge of nullifying Mr. Musharraf's controversial re-election as president. Mr. Musharraf thus acted to forestall his own political crisis. Initially, the resultant clampdown on the political opposition appeared to largely spare Ms. Bhutto's party. However, her defiant stance, including her recent call for Mr. Musharraf's resignation, backed her into a corner of her own.

Washington is eager to broker a truce, but it is not clear that one will now be possible. Mr. Musharraf maintains that parliamentary elections will go ahead in the new year. However, it is also clear that he will not hesitate to reverse a popular verdict if it goes against what he sees as the state's interests.

Some Pakistani analysts foresee a worst-case scenario. They see Ms. Bhutto discrediting herself by her dealings with Mr. Musharraf, and Mr. Musharraf growing ever more isolated. For the Americans, a real dilemma has thus emerged. Having put most of their eggs in the basket of the Bhutto-Musharraf alliance, they have few options left. Desperately anxious as they are about the growing assertiveness of Islamic militants in the north of the country, they want at all cost to keep a friend in power in Pakistan.

However, it is clear that a friend to the Americans is no friend to many, if not most, Pakistanis. Some analysts speculate that if Mr. Musharraf allowed free elections, a moderate centre might emerge from the process. But if he continues to undermine Pakistan's delicate democracy, he is likely to only embolden the radicals. In that scenario, Mr. Musharraf would then have to rely increasingly on the military to shore up his faltering rule.

Propping up a dictator will make the Americans more unpopular in Pakistan than they already are. Mindful of that, the Bush administration is putting great pressure on Mr. Musharraf to back away from emergency rule. But Mr. Musharraf, seemingly aware of American dependence upon him, has so far shown little inclination to budge.

The Commonwealth has added to the rising pressure on Mr. Musharraf to reverse the imposition of emergency rule. It is a difficult time for Pakistan, and one hopes that its friends in the international community will succeed in bringing Mr. Musharraf to reason.

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