There is a growing assumption in Jamaica that a general election may be around the corner. An election any time soon would not be good for Jamaica.

This election speculation is being fuelled by the recent ruling by the Supreme Court that at the time of his election as member of parliament (MP) for West Portland, Daryl Vaz did not meet the citizenship criteria to sit in the House of Representatives.

There is also the court's green light for a similar challenge against Gregory Mair to go ahead, as well as the pending case against a third Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) MP, Shahine Robinson. A fourth MP, Michael Stern, may face a similar challenge.

These parliamentarians, elected last September, may be in breach of the constitutional provision that prevents a person from membership of the legislature if he is "by virtue of his own act under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power or state".

Fundamental concern

In the case of Mr Vaz, his West Portland opponent, the People's National Party's (PNP) Abe Dabdoub, has appealed the ruling that there should be a by-election rather than he being awarded the seat.

Mr Vaz, despite having initially accepted Chief Justice Zaila McCalla's ruling and renouncing his American citizenship, has appealed the decision.

Prime Minister Golding has said he would call an election rather than allow Mr Dabdoub, who could not claim the majority support of his constituents, to sit in the House.

But the prime minister's more fundamental concern is, perhaps, the thin 32-28 majority he enjoys in the House. This could be further sliced, or the JLP majority even reversed, depending on the outcomes of the other cases, or if a few recalcitrant colleagues decided to cross the floor.

The loss would not be compensated for if challenges were successfully mounted on similar grounds against Opposition MPs.

The signal from the leadership of the PNP is decidedly mixed. That party's leader, Portia Simpson Miller, has said she does not want to come to office via the courts; others have said they are not bidding for an election.

But Mrs Simpson Miller is out campaigning. She calls it reconnecting with the people. She is clearly attempting to take advantage of the concern among Jamaicans over crime and rising prices.

Costly elections

But we remind both parties of a couple of things, not the least that elections are expensive operations. The parties, by our estimate, spent $1.5 billion on the last one, mostly money contributed by the private sector. Firms are unlikely to cough up that amount of cash less than a year later.

More critical is the fact that, in Jamaica, elections breed uncertainty. With uncertainty comes economic slowdown, if not stagnation. People tend to put on hold investment decisions. Any election now would probably mean economic programmes being pushed back by a year - time the country can ill-afford.

The sensible thing to do - assuming the parties mean Jamaica well - would be for the leaders to agree for the legal challenges to go through on the understanding that if they are successful, by-elections would be accommodated, uncontested by the party that does not now hold the seat. The constitution would be respected and the economic and political imperatives acknowledged.